In March, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an El Niño advisory for 2015. El Niño occurs when Pacific Ocean temperatures around the equator are abnormally high, and in turn, affect the global climate. While the reason for El Niño is still uncertain, its effects can be seen throughout the United States. What this will mean for Utah is largely determined by the intensity of El Niño.
This may just be the strongest El Niño year ever. According to meteorologist Joel Gratz, this rumor is founded in hard data, which shows average sea temperatures at +2.0°C. To give a little perspective, The National Weather Service says that an Oceanic Niño Index (equatorial sea temperatures) of +0.5°C is enough to declare an El Niño year. That means that this year, temperatures are more than three times stronger than the minimum El Niño temperatures.
Early effects of this strength were seen in Southern California this September. A startling array of tropical fish (and their predators) have migrated towards California's unusually warm seas, and sightings of great whites, hammerheads and whale sharks have become a regular event. Human-shark interactions have not always been peaceful, either. Early in September, a kayaker was bitten in the foot by a hammerhead off the coast of Malibu.
While California may have reason to hope that its drought woes may be lessened this year by El Niño, outcomes for Utah are not so clear-cut. Meteorologist Joel Gratz says that past El Niño winters have seen warmer temperatures in the Northern United States, wetter winters in the Southern United States, and close-to-average climate patterns in-between.
Skiers and snowboarders in search of a wetter winter than last may still have a small grain of hope. Past data from previous El Niño winters in northern Utah show that snowfall has exceeded averages during some years, such as 1982-83. However, sometimes an El Niño winter result in average snowfall in northern Utah, so any predictions for heavy precipitation must be taken with a grain of salt.
Evan Thayer of Wasatch Snow Forecast points out another confounding factor that could affect Utah's snowfall: "The Blob." The Blob is another lump of abnormally warm water off the coast of North America, which experts have recently pointed to as the culprit for Utah's less-than-average snowfall during recent years. Since it was only recently discovered, much less research is in place for The Blob, so these conclusions are only preliminary at this point.
El Niño, being as powerful as it is this year, is still not a sure bet for heavy snowfall in northern Utah for 2015-16. Typically, southern Utah is a shoo-in for ample precipitation during El Niño years, according to Thayer, but with so many other factors at play, like The Blob, no one can quite say what northern Utah's winter will be like.
Valerie Durrant is a student at Brigham Young University, expecting to graduate in 2017 with a degree in English and a minor in management. Contact her at: valeriekay24@hotmail.com.