It’s not impossible.
Independent candidate Evan McMullin, who’s based his bid for the presidency around the idea of true conservatism in a year where the Republican Party has embraced an unorthodox candidate, has a slight yet totally possible path to the White House, according to the analytics site FiveThirtyEight.
But as FiveThirtyEight’s Benjamin Morris detailed this week, it will require some luck and work on McMullin’s end.
“It would take a fascinating scenario — in which much of the technical detail of how we select presidents comes into play — for McMullin to be sworn in as the 45th president, but the chances of its happening are slim, not none,” Morris wrote. “Indeed, his chances of at least making things very interesting may be as high as 1 to 3 percent — about the same as the odds of the Cubs’ coming back to beat the Giants on Monday.”
The Chicago Cubs did indeed complete that comeback, rallying from three runs down in the ninth.
McMullin’s path is not unlike Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson’s. McMullin, a BYU graduate, would need to win Utah — a state where he’s currently polling somewhere around 20 percent, just single digits behind Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump — and hope it prevents both major party candidates from reaching the 270 mark.
After that, he’ll have to convince members of Congress to vote him into the White House — a situation outlined in the 12th Amendment.
While not impossible, it's unlikely. McMullin not only has to convince Utah Republicans to vote for him but also maintain his level of notoriety to a point where he doesn’t steal votes from Trump and ultimately hand Clinton the victory.
“In other words, if McMullin gets too strong, he could literally cost himself the election,” Morris wrote. “The only route to the presidency McMullin can take must be navigated on the back of a dark horse.”
It’s an unconventional path to the White House, but one that can happen nonetheless.
McMullin has spread his message in Utah this past week. The New York Times reported on a recent speech he gave in Logan, where he interweaved his policies with his life's history and familial background.
Still, McMullin has yet to receive full support from Utah political leaders, the Times reported. Lt. Gov. Spencer J. Cox, for example, has been critical of Trump and Clinton, and yet can't support McMullin just yet — even though Cox believes McMullin is a "good person with a solid background," according to the Times.
But Miles Gillette, a 28-year-old who works at a car dealership in Utah, said he wholeheartedly supports McMullin.
“I’d rather take a long shot,” Gilette told the Times, “than sell my morals.”
Herb Scribner is a writer for Deseret Digital Media.