"We have met the enemy, and he is us." — Pogo, the cartoonist
Republicans have had to do a lot of soul-searching lately. The rise of Donald Trump forces this re-examination.
But in understanding what’s behind his support, we can at least begin to see that the greatest concern is not the candidate but the fear inside voters that have thus far been drawn toward him.
My eyes were opened to this insight after reading an article in Vox by Amanda Taub, "The rise of American authoritarianism."
Like many good narratives, it began with a mystery. Last September, University of Massachusetts at Amherst Ph.D. student Matthew MacWilliams began to wonder why the Republican electorate seemed to be supporting "a far-right, orange-toned populist with no real political experience, who espouses extreme and often bizarre views."
He imagined that his dissertation held clues to explaining Trump's strong polling numbers, and to the durability of the support. Where did these supporters come from in such numbers, seemingly out of nowhere?
Many people — myself included — refused to take Trump's support seriously, at least until it was translated into actual votes.
Understanding authoritarianism seems to be the key. Vox explains the subject of MacWilliams' research is "not actual dictators, but rather a psychological profile of individual voters that is characterized by a desire for order and a fear of outsiders. People who score high in authoritarianism, when they feel threatened, look for strong leaders who promise to take whatever action necessary to protect them from outsiders and prevent the changes they fear."
That description fits Trump.
Soon, MacWilliams connected with Marc Hetherington and Jonathan Weiler, political scientists who in a 2009 book essentially predicted the rise of a Trump:
"The GOP, by positioning itself as the party of traditional values and law and order, had unknowingly attracted what would turn out to be a vast and previously bipartisan population of Americans with authoritarian tendencies."
These political science researchers are on to something. Namely, America already has a three party system: Democrats, the GOP establishment and GOP authoritarians.
What is authoritarian? We'll, until recently they've been hiding among us, so they've been rather hard to pin down.
Instead of asking about political views, Stanley Feldman, a political science professor at the State University of New York, found that the best test for authoritarianism is your answer to these four questions about parenting:
Is it more important for a child to have: (1) Independence or respect for elders? (2) Obedience or self-reliance? (3) To be considerate or to be well-behaved? (4) Curiosity or good manners?
The test, the Vox article summarizes, was extremely accurate. For more than two decades, research about people fitting this profile has been integrated into other questions about political preference — enabling these scholars to understand the phenomenon of Trump supporters.
The news organization Vox went further, and teamed up with the political polling firm Morning Consult to test a number of hypotheses. A high measure of authoritarianism is, in fact, "very predictive of support for Trump," said the firm.
That means that even if Trump were to lose the nomination, his authoritarian supporters would remain.
That leads to the need to understand what it is that motivates authoritarianism. What is it that translates latent views about child-rearing into a set of political views that seem targeted at "others"?
While there are different theories expressed within the Vox article, they seem to settle down into "one terrifying theory: that if social change and physical threats coincided at the same time, it could awaken a potentially enormous population of American authoritarians, who would demand a strongman leader and the extreme policies necessary, in their view, to meet the rising threats."
To crudely simplify, the very recent rise of a terrorist organization like ISIS, coupled with the imposition of a dramatic social change such as same-sex marriage, equals an authoritarian backlash.
Look at the stark numbers on terror threats: 73 percent of people with very highly authoritarian tendencies fear ISIS, versus 45 percent of those with very low authoritarian tendencies. (This contrasts with everyday risks like car accidents and drug addictions, where fear of such risks is evenly spread among the population.)
Look at the numbers on same-sex marriage: Fully 46 percent of the most authoritarian said it was bad or very bad for America, versus only 7 percent of those with the lowest authoritarian tendencies.
I don’t think anyone has a ready answer to address this mounting American authoritarianism. But we must first understand how the breakneck pace of social change, even on an issue like same-sex marriage, can spur a nationwide backlash without even directly addressing this social change.
Our nation cannot wish away an incipient authoritarianism. Understanding and acknowledging it is the first and most necessary step.
Drew Clark is of counsel at the law firm of Best Best and Krieger, where he focuses on technology, media and telecommunications. Connect on Twitter @drewclark or via email at drewclark@bbklaw.com.