What are the chances 26-year-old Taysom Hill will return to be a productive, high-level athlete as he gingerly continues to recover from foot surgery?
According to science, the odds are extremely high for the BYU senior.
But nothing is guaranteed. And if you tuned into interviews of Hill, his position coach, Ty Detmer, and the 11-game starter who replaced Hill, Tanner Mangum, right now isn’t the time to worry about it.
Still, folks wonder what the numbers say. When will Hill be back? How effective will he be? Will he be able to mount a challenge for his starting spot and fully compete with Mangum? How and when is this going to find a resolution?
Right now, he can’t say. Neither can his doctors or coaches. Only Taysom Hill’s body knows.
The science says Hill can return as early as nine months or as long as 15 months. The average, according to a study by the University of Pennsylvania, is “a median 11.1 months.”
If Hill returns at the earliest, he’s looking at the end of May or June. If his recovery matches the average time mentioned in this study, he returns in August. If it’s going to take 15 months, Hill will be ready sometime close to Halloween but before Thanksgiving.
Hill’s issue is called a Lisfranc injury, not uncommon among football players. It usually occurs when a player lands on the heel of another player’s foot, or when football player's cleats stick in the turf during a move. It can also happen when a player like Hill, who has tremendous athleticism, pushes off and launches his body forward and the pressures of that acceleration sprains, dislocates or breaks the bones in the middle of the foot. The latter is what happened to Hill in Lincoln, Nebraska in last year's season opener against the Cornhuskers.
Treatments vary, but if surgery is involved, the recovery is longer. Hill had surgery. He told reporters Tuesday he had just begun jogging outside of a rehab pool two weeks ago and by design, he’s going to take it slow and easy this spring.
The good news for Hill is the March 2015 Penn study of 28 NFL players showed 93 percent of the NFL players in the study returned to competition in the league. Two did not.
The Penn study declares those who returned less than 15 months after injury had “no statistically significant decrease in performance.” The work was presented last spring to the American Association of Orthopaedic Surgeons at its annual convention in Las Vegas.
Hill’s case reminds me of a quarterback whose skill set is just like his, former Washington star and Tennessee Titan Jake Locker, the No. 8 pick in the 2011 NFL draft.
On Nov. 11, 2013, Locker suffered a Lisfranc injury and had surgery. Doctors projected him to return in June 2014, after seven months. He surprised some by going through a practice for the Titans on May 27 when he said his foot felt “awesome.”
After that practice, Locker told reporters, “I think that people heal differently. Some people heal faster, slower, whatever it is. I take pride in the fact that I'm going to do everything I can to exceed expectations. My goal was to be back out here as quickly as I can. … I felt really good. It felt good moving around."
Locker ended up starting against Kansas City in Week 1 that fall and completed 66 percent of his passes for 266 yards, two touchdowns with an impressive NFL passer rating of 111.
Locker’s timetable was on the quick end of the spectrum. He did retire from football the next spring, citing a lack of passion to keep playing.
From all accounts, Hill’s recovery is on target. He said it “isn’t close,” on Tuesday. Nobody’s pushing him to race out and compete for his old starting spot. BYU head coach Kalani Sitake said one of his main jobs of spring is to keep an eye on Hill so he doesn’t do something crazy and get hurt.
Hill’s presence and impact at BYU’s spring practices are measurable and obvious even without him running plays. He has a calming influence and his leadership is real, although symbolic this spring.
So, for the dramatists, of which there are many, it may be wise to crank it down a few notches.
Like offensive coordinator Ty Detmer said, today is not the day.
EMAIL: dharmon@deseretnews.com.
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