Prediction: UCLA 26 BYU 23
When BYU has the ball
In the S&P+ advanced statistical rankings (which take strength of schedule into consideration), BYU is in the middle of the pack, ranked 51st, when it comes to offensive efficiency. When it comes to offensive explosiveness, however, BYU is ranked 123rd.
Fortunately for BYU, UCLA is ranked just 64th in the S&P+ on defense, so this should be a considerably easier matchup for the BYU offense than last week when it faced the fourth ranked defense.
UCLA could struggle stopping the run as its defense ranks 101st in rushing success rate. Word is Jamaal Williams will play Saturday, which is huge for BYU. Look for BYU's game plan to include a heavy dose of Williams running the ball.
While UCLA is better against the pass, it still ranks between 50 and 80 in the major pass defense categories. The UCLA defense is not particularly disruptive either. Unlike Utah, which is one of the highest rated defenses for creating havoc, UCLA ranks 113th, with the defensive line and linebackers ranking 126th and 121st, respectively, so the UCLA front seven is not particularly fearsome. Taysom Hill should have more time to throw this week.
UCLA is more of a finesse defense than a physical defense, which should play to BYU's favor, given its physical style of play. The BYU offense is still finding itself and may take halfway through the season to get where it wants to be. If the offense is to have a breakout game, this Saturday's matchup would provide a prime opportunity.
When UCLA has the ball
UCLA's offense is good. It ranks 11th nationally in the S&P+. However, that has not translated into scoring a lot of points. Like BYU, UCLA is not explosive offensively, ranking 103rd, but it is efficient, ranking 28th.
Much of UCLA's efficiency on offense is due to its ground game, ranking seventh in rushing success rate. The run game ranks 101st in explosiveness.
BYU's defense ranks 36th in the S&P+ in overall defense, but it ranks in the 70s in the key rushing categories. UCLA could have success running the ball. If this game is close by the end, UCLA should be able to pound away at a BYU defense that has shown a propensity to wear down late in games.
UCLA's pass offense is overshadowed by its run game, despite having the much-ballyhooed Josh Rosen at quarterback. Rosen has looked pretty pedestrian so far this season. His offensive line has not helped him much as it ranks 84th in sack rate on standard downs and 81st in passing situations. The key for BYU is to put pressure on Rosen, who is a pure pocket passer.
BYU's pass defense has a penchant for making big plays, but with Kai Nacua out the first half it remains to be seen how effective BYU can be at sustaining its success. The defense is also fairly disruptive, ranking 27th in creating havoc, with the linebackers ranking second nationally.
UCLA likes to keep a brisk pace on offense, ranking 21st in adjusted pace. Much like BYU, however, UCLA struggles finishing drives with points. Turnovers could also be an issue for UCLA.
This will be a matchup of strengths against weaknesses with UCLA's strong running game going up against BYU's weaker run defense and UCLA's weak passing game going up against BYU stronger pass defense.
When the ball is kicked
BYU ranks 41st in the S&P+ in special teams, while UCLA ranks 68th. UCLA has a great punter but is pretty average in the other special teams areas.
Conclusion
On paper, UCLA should win this game, but the game is not played on paper. This is BYU's home opener and Kalani Sitake's first game coaching at LaVell Edwards Stadium, so the atmosphere should be electric.
Both teams are desperate for a win. UCLA, a prohibitive PAC-12 favorite entering the season, does not want to enter conference play at 1-2. BYU, likewise, can ill afford to go 1-2 with a relentlessly difficult schedule still ahead.
The big question mark for BYU is, when will the offense turn the corner? If BYU's offense finds itself this week, BYU could win in a laugher reminiscent of its slaughtering of UCLA in 2008. There are no indications that will happen, so the safe assessment is UCLA will ruin Sitake's homecoming party.