There are many ways to evaluate the success of a college basketball team, but can we all agree on one thing: 20 wins is no longer one of them.
Some consider it to be a benchmark for success — and it was, 40 years ago.
On a list of outdated and overrated sports feats, winning 20 games in college basketball ranks up there with 1,000-yard rushers in the NFL (in a 16-game season?!) and “earning” a college football bowl berth (80 berths — everyone’s a winner!).
Conference championships, wins over ranked opponents, automatic NCAA Tournament berths … those are real measurements of success in college basketball. Winning 20 games was also once prized as one of those benchmarks, but not anymore — or it shouldn’t be.
It’s simple: Teams play so many games in this era that 20 wins has been greatly devalued (although it sounds and looks much better than, say, 19 wins). It was a great accomplishment through the 1960s and even into the ‘70s, but the steady addition of games finally rendered it a so-so accomplishment.
NCAA rules allow 29 regular-season games or 27 games plus up to four games in a regular-season tournament, for a total of 31. This does not even count conference and NCAA/NIT tournament games.
Using BYU as an example …
When Floyd Millet coached the Cougars from 1941 to 1949, his teams played an average of 25.29 games per season (tossing out the war-shortened 1943-44 season). That means his teams had to win 79 percent of their games to reach 20 wins in a season — a feat he managed once, when the Cougars played an aberrational 34 games.
Stan Watts coached the Cougars for 23 years, from 1949 to 1972, playing an average of 27 games per season. His teams had to win 74 percent of their games to reach 20 victories. That made the 20-win mark a great accomplishment — and Watts managed it six times.
Frank Arnold’s teams played an average of 28.9 games during the eight years he coached the Cougars (1975-83). He had to win 69 percent of his games to reach the 20-win mark, which he managed three times.
Then there was Arnold’s successor, Ladell Andersen, whose teams played an average of 30.8 games per season. He had to win 65 percent of his games to reach 20 wins in a season — which he managed three times in six years.
Roger Reid, whose teams played 32.7 games per year, had to win 61 percent of his games to reach 20 wins — which he did in six of the seven full seasons he coached.
Steve Cleveland — 30.75 games per year — had to win 65 percent of his games to reach 20 wins, which he did in four of the eight seasons he coached.
Then there’s Dave Rose, BYU’s head coach since 2005. Much has been made of his streak of winning 20 games every year for 12 years. Rose’s teams have played an average of 34.42 games per season. That means he has to win only 58 percent of his games to reach 20 wins — compared to 79 percent for Millet.
The numbers would tell the same story at every university, but just for fun let’s use Utah as another example …
Vadal Peterson (1927-53) had to win 77 percent of his games to reach 20 victories. He did so five times.
Jack Gardner (1953-71) had to win 73 percent of his games to reach 20 wins, which he did eight times. No wonder he was a legendary coach.
Jerry Pimm (1974-83) had to win 69 percent of his games to win 20, which he did four times.
Rick Majerus (1989-04) managed to win at least 20 games 12 times in 15 years — a remarkable feat when you consider that he had to win 72 percent of his games to reach 20.
Then there’s current coach Larry Krystkowiak. Tossing out the current incomplete season because it is yet undetermined how many postseason games the Utes will play, the Utes averaged 33.4 games during the previous five seasons under Krystkowiak. That means the Utes must win only 60 percent of those games to win 20, which they have managed three times.
The bottom line is that the “20-win” benchmark, when adjusted for game inflation, is about 25 wins. Better yet, forget total wins and look at winning percentage.
Email: drob@deseretnews.com