In about three weeks, the Gordon Hayward sweepstakes will begin.
Hayward once enjoyed the comfort of being an under-the-radar player in Salt Lake City, but his recent ascension will put the All-Star under a tight spotlight this summer. Set to become an unrestricted free agent for the first time in his career, Hayward will have plenty of suitors starting July 1.
The Jazz intend to do what it takes to convince Hayward to stay, but the reality is, they may have to explore other options if Hayward leaves.
As the clock ticks and Hayward’s decision looms, the Jazz must prepare for the worst. If Hayward exercises his right as a free agent and chooses to start fresh in a different city, the Jazz will have to find a replacement.
Utah’s salary cap situation is a tricky one, though, so finding a player to take the place of Hayward may prove difficult.
With two non-guaranteed salaries on the books (Boris Diaw and Raul Neto combine for about $9 million in non-guaranteed money for next season), the futures of multiple players in question (Derrick Favors and Alec Burks have been floated in trade rumors) and other key players hitting free agency (notably George Hill and Joe Ingles), it’s unclear how much cap space the Jazz will have this offseason.
Nevertheless, it’s not predicted that Utah will have much cap to work with. Dan Favale of Bleacher Report predicted the Jazz will have less than $23 million to spend this summer, depending on the aforementioned factors.
Danilo Gallinari and Otto Porter, both of whom will be available, will likely be out of Utah’s price range, but the Jazz could look for an in-house replacement.
Rodney Hood is eligible for a contract extension this summer, so if Hayward leaves, the Jazz will likely contemplate signing him to a long-term deal for continuity and continued development.
In that sense, Hood would be considered a possible replacement for Hayward, alleviating the need for the Jazz to look outside the organization.
Hood’s career arc is similar to Hayward’s
Players don’t begin to hit their respective primes until they’re in their mid-to-late 20s.
At 24, Hood has yet to reach his full potential but has shown flashes similar to Hayward.
In his third season with the Jazz, when he was 22, Hayward averaged 14.1 points and 3.1 rebounds on 43.5 percent shooting. Despite having a few seasons of NBA basketball under his belt at that point, Hayward’s offensive efficiency dipped from the previous season as the Jazz began relying more on his scoring than in years past.
In his second season with the Jazz, when he was 23, Hood averaged 14.5 points and 3.4 rebounds on 42 percent shooting. Like with Hayward, the Jazz counted on Hood more than before, and his usage offensively increased.
Both players responded adequately for players in their early 20s and received praise from NBA pundits. Not too long after taking on the heavy offensive load, Hayward put on muscle in the offseason and learned how to create shots for himself off the dribble. He expanded his game and became a go-to scorer, increasing his point per game average by seven in five seasons.
Hood is facing similar critiques that Hayward faced when he was the same age. He needs to get stronger in order to finish at a higher rate at the rim, improve his ball handling and become more comfortable with shooting off the dribble. Hayward did all of those things and blossomed into an All-Star.
Assuming Hood has the same work ethic as Hayward, there’s no reason to believe his career cannot have the same trajectory, even if he never reaches the level Hayward did last season.
Hood could be a better defender than Hayward
Along with the rest of the league, the Jazz have changed over the past few years. In order to stay afloat, the Jazz have added more 3-point shooting and versatility to their roster. But the fundamentals of the game, particularly on defense, have stayed the same.
As good as the Golden State Warriors are offensively, the highlight plays and blowout victories shouldn’t blind people to the fact that they’re also the best defensive team in the NBA. Opposing teams find it virtually impossible to match their length and defensive intensity, which is the most underrated aspect of their historic success.
Hood, with nearly a 6-foot-9 wingspan, has the length to wreak havoc defensively. For him to reach an elite level, however, he needs to be in tune for 48 minutes.
Throughout the course of their respective careers, Hood has had a better defensive rating than Hayward, allowing 107 points per 100 possessions, which is roughly three points less than what Hayward sported when he was Hood’s age.
Paul George, who’s regarded as one of the better wing defenders in the NBA, had a 107.3 defensive rating this past season. Avery Bradley, who was on the All-Defensive first team last year, had a similar defensive rating.
That statistic — “defensive rating” — isn’t the end-all, be-all for gauging levels of defense, but it does represent how well a team defends with certain players on the floor.
The Jazz did a better job of stopping teams from scoring inside when Hood was on the floor as opposed to Hayward, allowing six fewer points in the paint. Since neither Hood nor Hayward are considered “rim protectors,” it can be assumed that Hood was quicker to help the big men, specifically Rudy Gobert. Hood's length, in that case, likely played a role in the Jazz’s success in locking down the paint.
Hood loves shooting threes
The term “3-and-D” has been used to describe players who focus primarily on defense and hitting threes. Those players tend to be fairly limited in terms of their roles, but if they can expand their talent, it allows for tremendous growth. Kawhi Leonard, for instance, started as a “3-and-D” player, but developed into an all-around superstar.
Hood’s transition from college to the NBA has been relatively smooth because his skill set appeals to today’s league. Hood has a tendency to take 3-point shots, not long twos, which is a hurdle for most young players.
Almost 46 percent of Hood’s total shot attempts come from behind the 3-point line, whereas 3-point shots were only 28 percent of Hayward’s offense. Per-36 minutes, Hood attempted 6.4 threes per game this past season, or two more per game than Hayward.
And despite shooting more threes than Hayward, Hood shoots at almost the same clip. If he can continue to find his rhythm from deep, Hood could become a specialist and expand his offensive game slowly, just like other “3-and-D” players did before him.
Becoming an elite 3-point shooter is one way Hood could make up for the rest of his deficiencies. Continuing to expand his range and increase his efficiency is something Hood will be tasked with this offseason and going into the regular season.