In most years as Utah Jazz vice president of player personnel Walt Perrin and his colleagues approach less than a week before the NBA draft, they have narrowed the list of prospects they’re seriously considering at their given first-round selection to about six or seven players.
On Sunday, however, Perrin said the list was still at about a dozen as the Jazz continued to prepare for the 21st overall pick in Thursday's draft.
This concept is well-reflected in mock drafts that have been published in recent days by major outlets. For one thing, it’s difficult to find a consensus that far down in the draft, a task that is made even more challenging this year by the fact that there is a glut of wings who are expected to be taken in the mid-to-late first round. In large part, that means the draft could come down to how teams will differentiate between rather similar players.
Additionally, a number of major mock drafts have stayed pretty steady at the top over the last few days, but at least one has significantly changed its predictions about later picks as Thursday draws closer.
Perhaps interestingly given the high number of wings that most predict will get drafted between picks 15 and 35, the only player who more than one of four major mock drafts (ESPN, CBS, Sports Illustrated and The Ringer) has going to Utah is UCLA point guard Aaron Holiday, as both ESPN and CBS have the Jazz picking the 6-foot 21-year-old.
“What Holiday lacks in size, he makes up for in length, athleticism, aggressiveness and toughness defensively,” writes ESPN’s Jonathan Givony. “He excels in the open floor but also is a prolific 3-point shooter with deep range both with his feet set and off the dribble.”
CBS’ Gary Parrish wrote of Holiday: “His 6-6 wingspan should prove beneficial while guarding opposing point guards. His ability to consistently make perimeter jumpers means he's a capable passer and shooter.”
Sports Illustrated had Utah selecting Bosnian wing Dzanan Musa earlier this week, but on Wednesday it was changed to USC guard De'Anthony Melton. Both players took part in the same workout in front of Perrin and company at the Zions Bank Basketball Campus on Sunday.
"He’s best paired off the ball alongside a creative guard, with long arms, active hands and a knack for forcing mistakes on the defensive end," SI's Jeremy Woo writes of the 6-foot-3 Melton. "His presence would take some responsibility away from Donovan Mitchell and enable the Jazz to try different looks in the backcourt, provided Melton’s improved three-point stroke holds up."
The Ringer has consistently pegged Maryland sharpshooter Kevin Huerter to end up in Utah, with Danny Chau saying in a video version of the publication's mock draft on Wednesday, "Maybe the best shooter in the draft. Certainly the best guy who's going to be doing his best Klay Thompson interpretation off screens, shooting off balance."
A few other sites don’t do mock drafts, but rank players and focus on deep analysis of prospects, with some using advanced analytics to do so. Model 284 has Michigan State forward Miles Bridges ranked No. 21, while The Stepien has Miami guard Lonnie Walker IV in that spot (that has also changed, as it had Wichita State guard Landry Shamet at 21 earlier this week).
Both of those are against where those two prospects have typically been pegged in mock drafts, as both are widely projected to not slip past the middle of the first round.