SALT LAKE CITY — Based on familiar faces, the 2000 MLB Home Run Derby is one to remembered. Five contestants — Ken Griffey Jr., Vladimir Guerrero, Pudge Rodriguez, Edgar Martinez and Chipper Jones — reside in the Baseball Hall of Fame. At the time, the group of eight (which also included Sammy Sosa) had amassed 37 All-Star Game appearances.
Compare that to this year’s lineup.
Only one competitor — Houston’s Alex Bregman — in Monday night’s Home Run Derby, scheduled for 6 p.m. MDT on ESPN, has made more than one All-Star team. And the contestants have combined for eight All-Star Game selections, most of them coming this season. Because instead of relying on the star power it once did, the Home Run Derby has, in the last three years, become a showcase for baseball’s young talent. The question is whether that’s by design, or because baseball lacks the perennial stars it once had.
There’s no question that baseball is lacking some of its former star power. In the late ‘90s and early 2000s, the derby also featured (in part thanks to steroid use) names like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Thome, Jason Giambi and Alex Rodriguez. There just aren’t that many consistent power hitters anymore.
Plus, most of the established names are aging. Thirteen active MLB players have made six or more All-Star teams. None of them are competing in the derby, and only three — Bryce Harper, 26; Mike Trout, 27; and Jose Altuve, 29 — are under 30. Among those with seven or more selections, the youngest aside from Trout is 35-year-old Brian McCann.
That isn’t to say there aren’t dynamic, young, power-hitting players out there. Trout comes to mind. He’s averaged more than 33 homers per year in his seven full seasons, and with 28 heading into the All-Star break, he’s on pace to shatter his career-high 41. But he’s never competed in the derby, and last year, he told the Orange County Register he’s not interested.
“I’d rather just have that night with my family, spend time with them," he told The Register. "I just want to relax and enjoy the day. Just watch it. … I just never had any interest in doing it.”
Another exciting (though far less established) young star is Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Cody Bellinger. He’s launched an unexpected MVP candidacy this season thanks in part to his 30 home runs, tied for second in the majors. He competed in the 2017 derby, but like Trout, he’s just not interested. At least this year.
“It’s gonna be here in LA next year, so that’s gonna be a higher possibility. I just wanted to go this year and enjoy the first day and enjoy it,” he told AM 570 LA Sports, per Dodgers Nation. “In 2017, I remember getting to the field and going anxiously throughout the whole day. You have to hit extra batting practice to get ready for the derby with no cages. So I just wanted to go there and relax completely the first day. I’ll definitely consider it next year in Los Angeles.”
There’s also Milwaukee outfielder Christian Yelich, last year’s National League MVP and this year's league leader in home runs (31). He was scheduled to compete, but a back issue forced him to drop out. He was replaced by Oakland third baseman Matt Chapman.
And of course there are New York Yankees sluggers Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, both past winners of the event, both among the most feared (and fun to watch) power hitters in the game. But they’ve been out with injuries for the majority of the season.
There are still interesting storylines. New York Mets rookie first baseman Pete Alonso, for example, is tied with Bellinger for the second-most homers in the league. How will he fare in his first performance on a national stage? The same is true for Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Though he enters with the fewest home runs (eight) among the competitors, he carries his father’s name recognition and a reputation for punishing batting-practice fastballs. Bregman, Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. and Chapman are all rising stars. Pittsburgh’s Josh Bell is the favorite. And Cleveland’s Carlos Santana will be the home-crowd hero at Progressive Field.
That’s all very interesting if you care about baseball’s future stars. Not so much if, like most casual fans, you care more about its current stars. And this isn’t a new problem.
In the last three seasons, the number of All-Star Game selections between Home Run Derby contestants has plummeted. In 2015, the eight contestants shared 26 ASGs, with names like Prince Fielder, Manny Machado, Kris Bryant and Albert Pujols. In ‘16 it dropped to 20, then 12, then 12 again last year.
The only one of those with decent television numbers was 2017’s derby, thanks in large part to the much-hyped matchup between Judge and Stanton. Its 8.5 million viewers were the most for a home run derby since 2008. But last year’s numbers plummeted. Harper provided name recognition, yet 5.57 million viewers marked the third-fewest since 2003.
What’s happened with the home run derby is similar to the NBA’s Slam Dunk Contest. Michael Jordan won in 1987 and ‘88. Kobe Bryant won in ‘97. Vince Carter, Dwight Howard and Blake Griffin are all household names who have won. Superstars like LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Russell Westbrook, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry, however, have stayed away (some of them aren’t known for dunking, but come on — seeing Curry in a dunking contest could be fun).
But in the NBA, even less well-known players are far more well-known than baseball players. That’s just the nature of the games — in basketball, players’ faces are often visible when they’re on the court, and they become the focus whenever they have the ball. With lots of passing, that’s plenty of airtime. Plus teams are smaller. In baseball, players aren’t seen as much. Plus there’s personal branding and promotion — something basketball stars like James and Leonard have mastered while baseball stars like Harper and Trout lag.
ESPN’s Jayson Stark examined this phenomenon in a 2017 piece titled “Faceless of the Game: Where have all the MLB superstars gone?” He cited a survey showing that only three baseball players — all of them retired — ranked among America’s 50 favorite athletes. Stark acknowledged that baseball is experiencing a period of youth, where the stars of yesterday are on the decline and the stars of tomorrow are on the way up, leaving a void that has existed for at least the past two years. He said a chunk of the problem will be solved when standouts like Trout and Harper make defining plays in October (if the Angels are ever good enough to get there, and if Harper finally has his moment), but it’ll take more than that.
It’ll take marketing, he said. The kind James and the NBA know well. And it’ll take a baseball player understanding what it means to be the national face of a national game. He pointed to Trout as a possible heir apparent. He’s the best player in the game by any reasonable estimation, and he’s a nice, respectable, likable guy. But he’s been criticized for skipping the derby, along with the World Baseball Classic and late-night talk shows. Stark therefore hypothesized a different face for baseball: Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant.
Two years later, Bryant remains one of the most exciting young players in baseball, but he’s hardly become the face of the game and appears no more on his way to doing so than Trout.
Either one of them would still boost this year’s derby, though. Because although the young players offer some excitement — especially for hardcore fans eager to get a close-up look at the game’s future stars — it could be argued that baseball’s youth movement has overstayed its welcome. While the number of stars in the derby has decreased, MLB has compensated by changing the rules to make the contest more interesting. Instead of the old top-four-move-on format, the derby is now a series of head-to-head contests resulting in much more pressure and drama. And home runs.
That 2000 derby, the one with five future Hall of Famers? It resulted in 62 total home runs. Last year’s derby, the one with the low ratings? It featured a record 221.
That still wasn’t enough to bring in viewers.
Perhaps this year will be different. Even with the least name recognition in at least two decades, maybe showcasing the game’s future will translate to a ratings boost. Plus there’s more at stake. Harper won $125,000 for his victory last year. This year, first place wins $1 million — a speckle of clay in the diamond of Mike Trout’s $426.5 million contract, but still much larger than past prizes.
Baseball has no other options, anyway, aside from forcing some competition out of Trout and Bellinger. But after a grueling three and a half months with no more than a day off at a time, it seems that a chance at a million dollars doesn’t compare to an evening off.