SALT LAKE CITY — Three Democratic primary candidates vying for a presidential bid matter a lot right now before the next round of debates — they could be the difference between one or two nights.
ABC News announced new details about the upcoming presidential debate, which will run on Sept. 12 and Sept. 13 on ABC from Texas Southern University, a public, historically black university, in Houston.
Right now, there are only 10 candidates slated to debate — former Vice President Joe Biden, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, California Sen. Kamala Harris, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and entrepreneur Andrew Yang — which means there will only be one night of debates.
But adding one more candidate to the debates will change the debate format and require there to be two nights. To qualify, candidates need to have at least 130,000 individual donors and have earned 2 percent support in at least four qualifying national polls. And three Democratic candidates remain on the fringe. They could drop out of the race or they could try and stick it out.
Per The New York Times, Tom Steyer, Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and New York Sen. Kirsten GIllibrand are close to making it to the next round. Steyer just needs one more qualifying poll, while Gabbard needs two and Gillibrand needs three polls and 20,000 more donors.
Having two nights of debates wouldn’t seem as laborious as in the previous rounds. Whereas before there were 20 or so candidates spread over two nights, ABC News’ debate would have at least 11 candidates debate over two nights.
“Reminder: This would a good thing,” wrote Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, on Twitter. “Two nights with 5/6 candidates on the stage provides an opportunity for in-depth discussion that you just don’t get with 10 people on the stage, all carping to get their 30 second soundbite in.”
But here’s the other thing — it might not matter if they qualify for the September debates. The low-polling candidates can still make it to the debate in October.
“That’s because the requirements are the same for both debates, so candidates who fail to qualify for September’s see no reason to drop out just yet,” CNBC reported.
Still, candidates who receive more screen time and get a fresh appearance on a national network in front of a national network, which can be helpful when you’re running for office.
“The reality is that if you’re not in the debates, you’re not in the campaign,” said Christian Ferry, campaign manager for Sen. Lindsey Graham, according to CNBC.
Mike DuHaime, who served as senior strategist for Chris Christie’s 2016 presidential campaign, said something similar.
“There’s no better opportunity, no bigger opportunity than the debates,” he said.
And, according to CNN’s Chris Cillizza and Harry Enten, it’s harder for candidates to convince their donors and investors to support them
“Think about going to your donors — large-dollar and small-dollar — and asking them to reinvest in you. That’s hard enough when you are scuffling along at 1% but are guaranteed a slot in the debate. When you miss the debate because you can’t meet basic criteria to demonstrate a serious candidacy? That ask becomes close to impossible,” they wrote.
“Campaigns end when candidates run out of money. And that moment seems likely to happen for a good number of the candidates, if they don’t make the debate stage,” they wrote, adding, “Some may try to ride through the dry time between Aug. 29 and Sept. 12. It’s not an easy path, however, and our guess is not all of the candidates in the race today will be willing to take it.”