BYU’s challenge to host ranked and undefeated Southern Cal has to be more than a tuneup by the Trojans for a conference showdown with the University of Utah.
If it turns into that, it will be over quickly on Saturday and USC will win going away.
One would hope Kalani Sitake’s team has caught some momentum and chemistry upon return from a win at Tennessee where the squad had to bear down and come up with miracle-like plays in the double-overtime win in SEC country.
“USC has a great coaching staff and I’m sure they’ll have their team ready,” said Sitake. “We also have a great staff and I know we will have our guys ready.”
“This is a great opportunity for us,” said Cougar offensive lineman Brady Christensen.
“You always want to play the best,” said running back Lopini Katoa.
The thing is, USC will be the most explosive offense BYU has faced this year. That poses issues.
Most experts locally and nationally pick USC to beat BYU. That’s primarily because of recruited talent, speed, size, depth advantages and that BYU’s offense has struggled to score touchdowns, with just two TDs in regulation against Power Five competition (Utah and Tennessee).
The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman has USC by 28-17 and Stewart Mandel calls it USC 39-17.
If the Cougars are to have any chance Saturday, the offense will have to score in the 30s and double their TD production from what we’ve seen.
A focus by coordinator Jeff Grimes this season has been to get more chunk yardage and improve third-down conversions over last year. After two games against Power Five opponents, BYU is 119th in 20-plus yard plays with just four. One of those was the 64-yard catch by Micah Simon in the final minute of regulation at Tennessee.
If BYU had started off the season against opponents most Power Five and Group of Five teams do, that figure would be different in my opinion. But it would also mask an issue and give a false sense of productivity.
USC presents an opportunity to show improvement by the offense.
San Jose Mercury News’ Pac-12 expert Jon Wilner calls the BYU-USC game the most important Pac-12 game of the week because a Trojan loss would eliminate any playoff possibilities for the upstart USC team that has jumped to a 2-0 start with wins over Fresno State and Stanford.
“The Cougars have allowed 504 yards rushing in two games. After Saturday, it’ll be 1,008 in three. If you can’t contain the Trojans’ ground attack, there’s no way to stop their aerial game,” predicted Wilner.
The thing is, BYU’s defense has indeed yielded yards, but bucks traditional statistics when it comes to limiting touchdowns when an opponent gets to the 20. BYU is allowing just 42% TDs when the national average is 72%.
BYU’s defense really needs Grimes’ offense to fire up and produce TDs. This was a feature of what QB Zach Wilson and Company were doing in fall camp prior to the Utah game.
Grimes needs similar improvement to what BYU’s defense has made from the first to second game. Against Utah, BYU had 29 missed tackles. Against Tennessee, there were 12.
Grimes must get greater execution and decision-making out of the run-pass option game, find playmakers other than Matt Bushman downfield, and continue to ride rusher Ty’Son Williams. BYU’s offense has to keep possessions alive and keep USC’s offense off the field.
USC is counting on freshman QB Kedon Slovis to continue his surprising accuracy from a pistol-whipping of Stanford last week. Unlike Stanford’s defense, however, BYU will probably be conservative on blitzes and drop eight into zone coverage to keep things in front of defenders.
That may work if the Cougars can confuse Slovis and get a few picks. But, it will fail if USC’s run attack responds and produces touchdowns that the Cougar offense has to duplicate.
Slow starts, lack of wins at home are trends Sitake is fighting, and it gets no easier with the Trojans.
BYU has played 36 games against Top 25 teams since 2000 and the record is 8-28. Of those 36, only 25 percent have been in Provo where the Cougars are 3-6. According to Cougarstats.com, BYU is 2-7 against teams ranked between 23rd and 25th at the time the game has been played and three of those losses were by a single point.
The last time BYU defeated a ranked team in Provo was four years ago, a 35-24 upset of No. 20 Boise State that took a Hail Mary pass and catch at the end.
Doable? Yes, with a near-perfect game and some miracle plays at critical times. But unlikely because we have not seen that BYU’s offense is explosive enough to chase another opponent with touchdowns, aside from two overtimes at Tennessee.
If the Trojans have a chink in their armor, it could be their secondary and offensive line. If Wilson can find a pace and greater identity with long scoring drives, it would go a long way to giving BYU a chance to pull off an upset.
This week’s picks:
Penn State 34, Pittsburgh 21
Mississippi State 21, Kansas State 17
Colorado 24, Air Force 21
UCF 38, Stanford 17
Michigan State 28, Arizona State 21
Iowa 31, Iowa State 21
Arkansas 38, Colorado State 17
Utah 45, Idaho State 7
California 28, North Texas 3
Nevada 28, Weber State 14
Washington 24, Hawaii 21
Virginia 24, Florida State 21
Arizona 27, Texas Tech 24
USC 31, BYU 24
Last week 9-6