The first College Football Playoff rankings of 2021 came out on Tuesday, with Georgia, Alabama, Michigan State and Oregon making up the top four and BYU ranked at No. 15.
While the first CFP rankings didn’t come out until Nov. 2, following Week 9 of the season, the Associated Press poll has been released every week in the regular season. With the CFP rankings deciding not only the playoff, but the New Year’s Six bowls, the AP poll essentially doesn’t mean anything going forward.
With the CFP rankings holding all of the power now, it’s worth seeing how the committee-selected rankings differ from the latest AP poll, which came out on Sunday.
Biggest movement from AP poll to CFP rankings
Oklahoma (-4 spots from AP poll compared to CFP rankings), Cincinnati (-4), Oregon (+3), Iowa (-3).
Cincinnati was perhaps the biggest shock during the reveal of the CFP rankings. Ranked No. 2 in this week’s AP poll, Cincinnati is 8-0 with a statement win on the road against Notre Dame, who is No. 10 in the CFP rankings.
The Bearcats didn’t emphatically win against Navy (27-20) or Tulane (31-12) the last two weeks, but are undefeated with a top 10 win. They should have been ranked higher.
Meanwhile, 9-0 Oklahoma also fell four spots compared to its No. 4 AP ranking to No. 8. Oklahoma will most likely get into the playoff if it wins out, but most assumed that an undefeated Power Five team would at least be in the top six.
Spencer Rattler, the Sooners’ quarterback at the start of the season, was benched during the Texas game after a string of uninspiring performances, and Caleb Williams has come in and been great, leading the Sooners to a comeback win over Texas and throwing for 402 yards in a 52-21 win over Texas Tech last week.
The Sooners hadn’t been overly impressive until that Texas Tech win, just squeaking by Kansas, so the CFP committee may be leaning heavily on the eye test.
As of right now, Oregon at No. 4 is positioned to be in the playoff if it wins out and wins the Pac-12 championship. Ohio State, Oklahoma, Michigan and Cincinnati could challenge for that No. 4 spot, but as of today, the Ducks are in a good position if they take care of business.
Iowa slid more than it did in the AP poll following back-to-back losses to Purdue and Wisconsin.
Teams in CFP rankings that were not ranked in the AP poll
Mississippi State (No. 17 in CFP rankings), North Carolina State (19), Minnesota (20), Wisconsin (21), San Diego State (24), Pittsburgh (25).
At 5-3, Mississippi State is one of two teams in the CFP rankings that has three losses. Every other team has zero, one or two.
The Bulldogs have losses to Memphis, LSU and No. 2 Alabama, but have wins against No. 14 Texas A&M, No. 18 Kentucky and No. 19 North Carolina State. They are the only team to have three wins against Top 25 opponents in the CFP poll.
NC State making the Top 25 isn’t really surprising, given it was receiving the second-most votes in the AP poll, but vaulting to No. 19 is surprising. The Wolfpack’s two losses came in a one-point game against Miami and to No. 17 Mississippi State, but the closest thing to a statement win that NC State has is a 2OT win vs. Clemson, which is 5-3.
Minnesota is 6-2 with losses to No. 5 Ohio State and Bowling Green. That Bowling Green loss came at home, and the Gophers don’t have a win over a ranked team yet.
Wisconsin is 5-3. The Badgers’ three losses have come against two top 25 teams (Notre Dame and Michigan) and Penn State. Wisconsin beat Purdue, which was No. 25 in the AP poll at the time, and Iowa last week, who was No. 9 in the AP poll at the time but has dropped to No. 23 in the CFP rankings following the loss to Wisconsin.
Teams ranked in AP poll that were not in CFP rankings
UTSA (No. 16 in AP poll), Houston (20), Coastal Carolina (21), Penn Sate (22), SMU (23), Louisiana (24).
The CFP committee clearly does not respect Group of Five teams. Cincinnati not being in the top four shows that, along with some of these other teams from the G5 being unranked.
UTSA is 8-0, but its strength of schedule is one of the worst in football at 126, according to ESPN. Same with 7-1 Coastal Carolina, which has the 127th-worst strength of schedule, and 7-1 SMU, which has the 113th worst. At 7-1, Louisiana actually has a better strength of schedule at 101, but still didn’t make the cut.
Do these teams have a better strength of schedule than Power Five teams? Of course not, but there’s not much they can do to improve their SOS.
Cincinnati, of the American Athletic Conference, falls at 100 on the strength of schedule list, and it played Notre Dame, which is ranked No. 10 in the CFP. They have a marquee win and are undefeated, but still can’t crack the top four. These teams can’t control the quality of their opponents. All they can do is win.
By locking Cincinnati out of the top four this week and a decent amount of G5 teams that were ranked in the AP Top 25, the committee is essentially saying that no matter if G5 teams go undefeated, even with a great win on their resume, they’ll need chaos ahead of them to maybe make the playoffs.