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Why it might take 7 years for us to return to normal

A new calculator from Bloomberg says normal won’t return until 2028

A pharmacist prepares a Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at Summit Senior Living in Kearns on Thursday, Jan. 14, 2021.
A pharmacist prepares a Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine at Summit Senior Living in Kearns on Thursday, Jan. 14, 2021. A new calculator from Bloomberg says normal won’t return until 2028.
Kristin Murphy, Deseret News

The new COVID-19 vaccine calculator from Bloomberg has a stark finding — life may not return to normal across the world until 2028.

What happened?

Bloomberg has created a new database for COVID-19 vaccine distribution. So far, it has shown that there have been more than 119 million doses administered across the world.

  • Based on the current distribution, the United States will likely return to normal around the 2022 New Year, according to Bloomberg. That’s when the country will have 70% to 85% immunity from the COVID-19 vaccine, which is needed for normality to return, experts have said.
  • Israel, meanwhile, will likely reach the “herd immunity” number in the next two months, per Bloomberg.

The world might need longer, though. “With vaccinations happening more rapidly in richer Western countries than the rest of the globe, it will take the world as a whole seven years at the current pace,” according to Bloomberg.

However, Bloomberg admits these numbers can change since they’re showing how things stand right now. But as more vaccines get distributed, those numbers can change.

It may take time

Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, the chief science officer at the World Health Organization, said back in September that the world may need to wait until 2022 for everything to return to normal across the world, as I wrote about for the Deseret News.

  • “We’re looking at 2022 at least before enough people start getting the vaccine to build immunity. So for a long time to come, we have to maintain the same kind of measures that are currently being put in place with physical distancing, the masking and respiratory hygiene,” said Swaminathan, speaking to reporters during a virtual meeting hosted by the United Nations Foundation, according to CNN.
  • “Those will have to continue after the vaccine starts getting rolled out, because we need 60% to 70% of the population to have immunity before you will start seeing a dramatic reduction in transmission of this virus,” Swaminathan said. ”We also don’t know how long these vaccines will protect for — that’s the other big question mark: How long does immunity last? And it’s possible that you will need a booster.”

Remember ...

Here’s the thing, though — COVID-19 might be around forever. Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel recently warned the American public back in January that the coronavirus will be around the world forever even with the help of vaccines, as I explained in an article for the Deseret News.

Bancel said at a panel discussion at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference that COVID-19 will not go away and it may be with us for awhile, CNBC reports.

  • “We are going to live with this virus, we think, forever,” he said.