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‘Black Widow’ could end up with a $90 million opening. Where does that rank among other MCU films?

Will ‘Black Widow’ be successful?

Black Widow in “Black Widow.”
Black Widow (Scarlett Johansson) in “Black Widow.” Will ‘Black Widow’ be successful?
Marvel Studios

Industry insiders believe “Black Widow” could finish with a $65-$90 million opening weekend, which puts it on par with other Marvel Cinematic Universe films.

The prediction comes from Box Office Pro’s Shawn Robbins, an analyst for the Hollywood industry, according to ComicBook.com.

  • “That prediction is so far backed up by online trends. Black Widow‘s official Marvel Entertainment trailer page on YouTube has generated 14 million views from just the most recent spot released in early April 2021, in addition to the 29 million views of its first trailer released before lockdown on March 9, 2020,” Robbins said in his analysis of the “Black Widow” opening weekend.

He added that social media seems to be going well for the film so far.

  • “Social media engagement overall is trending on par with the likes of previous ‘solo’ Marvel films like ‘Doctor Strange,’ ‘Thor: Ragnarok,’ and ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp,’” he said in his analysis.

Where would ‘Black Widow’ rank for other MCU films?

OK. So let’s get this out of the way — “Black Widow” won’t have the biggest opening weekend for two major reasons. For one, we’re still in a global pandemic, which means that not everyone will want to flock to the movie theaters. And most movie theaters still have social distancing rules and capacity limits.

Second, “Black Widow” will be available on Disney+ Premier Access, which allows people to purchase the film for a $30 fee (and a Disney+ subscription). You have to imagine there will be some people who want to stay home.

So now that we’re done with that, let’s take a look at where “Black Widow” would rank against other MCU films if it did in fact end with a $90 million opening weekend, based on Box Office Mojo data.

  • “Avengers: Endgame” —$357.1 million
  • “Avengers: Infinity War” — $257.6 million
  • “The Avengers” — $207 million
  • “Black Panther” — $202 million
  • “Avengers: Age of Ultron” — $191.2 million
  • “Captain America: Civil War” — $179.1 million
  • “Iron Man 3” — $174.1 million
  • “Captain Marvel” — $153.4 million
  • “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2” — $146.5 million
  • “Iron Man 2” — $128.1 million
  • “Thor: Ragnarok” — $122.7 million
  • “Spider-Man: Homecoming” — $117 million
  • “Iron Man” — $98.6 million
  • “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” — $95 million
  • “Guardians of the Galaxy” — $94 million
  • “Spider-Man: Far From Home” — $92.5 million
  • “Black Widow” — $90 million
  • “Thor: The Dark World” — $85 million
  • “Doctor Strange” — $85 million
  • “Ant-Man and the Wasp” — $75.8 million
  • “Thor” — $65 million
  • “Captain America: The First Avenger” — $65 million
  • “Ant-Man” — $57.2 million
  • “The Incredible Hulk” — $55 million

That’s around the middle-of-the-pack for MCU films — maybe a little toward the bottom half if you’re really nit-picking. But if you consider that it’s a pandemic era with streaming options, that’s not too bad. After all, “Spider-Man: Far From Home” remains one of the beloved MCU films. So it’s fitting that another new MCU films would end up in that area.