The first day of the newly elected 118th Congress is expected to start with a dramatic showdown between Republican members opposed to Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., becoming speaker of the House, and his supporters. Members of the lower chamber must choose a speaker before any other business is conducted.
A small cohort of five GOP congressmen have publicly declared themselves as “never Kevin,” while a much larger group of Republican representatives have positioned themselves as “only Kevin.” Both groups have indicated they will hold their positions regardless of how many ballots it takes. This poses a significant problem for McCarthy or anyone hoping to win the speaker’s gavel.
The Republican Party won control of the House of Representatives under McCarthy’s leadership in last November’s midterm elections by a slim majority, 222 Republicans to 213 Democrats. A 218 majority is required to become speaker, so McCarthy can only afford to lose four votes from his own caucus.
If the five Republican detractors all hold out, then presumably McCarthy will not get the votes he needs. Succeeding rounds of voting will then be called until someone earns enough votes. Tuesday could be the first time since 1923 that multiple ballots are required to choose a speaker.
McCarthy has promised to not drop out of the race until he wins the votes needed to become speaker, no matter how many ballots it takes.
“Never Kevin” and other detractors
The five Republican congressmen publicly opposing McCarthy are Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona, Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Matt Rosendale of Montana, Bob Good of Virginia and Matt Gaetz of Florida.
Biggs has said repeatedly that he does not believe McCarthy will ever get the votes needed to become speaker, hinting that the opposition is larger than just the five members who have gone public. Biggs pointed to the fact that McCarthy was nominated to become speaker in the GOP House Conference last November by a secret vote of 188 to 31.
“I don’t see any scenario where I’d support Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker. McCarthy has a track record of cutting backdoor deals with Democrats,” Biggs posted on Twitter last week.
Good told “Fox & Friends” Monday morning that he won’t be voting for McCarthy because “he is part of the problem, not the solution.”
Good predicted that there will be 10 to 15 GOP members who will vote to block McCarthy on the first ballot. He then expects an “increasing number of members to vote for a true candidate who can represent the conservative conference,” on succeeding ballots.
Fox anchor Griff Jenkins pressed Good on who that “true candidate” will be, but he wouldn’t say. “So, you don’t have a name,” Jenkins asked. “Absolutely,” Good responded, “you will see that name tomorrow on the second ballot.”
CNN reported that some GOP members are considering House GOP Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana as a possible replacement candidate in case McCarthy decides to bow out after failed rounds of voting. Scalise is McCarthy’s chief deputy and more popular with conservative members.
But Scalise told the media two weeks ago that he has no plans to run for speaker. “I support Kevin. There are a lot of conversations going on, and Kevin is working on getting there. He is going to get there,” he said.
McCarthy looking for compromise
Over the weekend and into Monday, McCarthy attempted to appease those opposing his election as speaker by agreeing to some key rule change demands. His offer to compromise, however, doesn’t appear to have won over any of the members working to keep him out of the speaker’s office.
McCarthy’s detractors believe that the threshold to trigger a “vacate the chair” vote, which would force a chamber vote to oust a sitting speaker, should be restored to its original requirement of only one member. Conservatives say this is an important check on the speaker’s power.
Traditionally, any congressman or congresswoman could make the the motion at any time and call for an immediate vote. However, outgoing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., changed the rule to require half of the majority party’s conference to trigger the motion. And two months ago, by McCarthy’s request, the House GOP conference voted to keep Pelosi’s rule in place for the next Congress.
Although conservative detractors protested, McCarthy previously indicated he wasn’t willing to restore the rule. But on Sunday, McCarthy offered to lower the threshold from half of the GOP conference to only five Republicans to bring forward a motion.
After Sunday’s call, a group of nine conservatives, separate from the five “Never Kevin” members, released a letter saying McCarthy’s offer was “insufficient” to meet their demands.
“At this stage, it cannot be a surprise that expressions of vague hopes reflected in far too many of the crucial points still under debate are insufficient,” the letter said, which is signed by House Freedom Caucus Chair Scott Perry, R-Pa., as well as Republican Reps. Chip Roy of Texas, Paul Gosar of Arizona, Dan Bishop of North Carolina, Andy Harris of Maryland and Andrew Clyde of Georgia, and Reps.-elect Anna Paulina Luna of Florida, Andy Ogles of Tennessee and Eli Craine of Arizona.
Last month, Perry told the media he is disappointed that McCarthy wasn’t willing to restore the “vacate the chair” to its traditional threshold. “Leaders like (former GOP Speakers) Paul Ryan and John Boehner, and everyone before them, were fine to work under those provisions. And now, suddenly, in 2022, the guy that wants to be speaker wants to double down on what Nancy Pelosi put in place and actually make it less accountable than even she did,” Perry said. “That doesn’t seem to be indicative of unity, and it doesn’t seem to be indicative of a person that’s asking his detractors to trust him.”
McCarthy’s déjà vu
McCarthy was passed over for the speaker role once before. In 2015, then-Rep. Mark Meadows, R-N.C., made the motion to vacate the chair, which eventually caused then-Speaker Boehner to resign.
McCarthy was serving as the GOP majority leader at the time and was the widely-considered heir apparent, but a group of Freedom Caucus members refused to support him. This led McCarthy to drop out of the race and the Republican conference to support Paul Ryan as a consensus candidate for speaker.
History might repeat itself Tuesday, unless McCarthy has some other ways of persuading holdouts in his own party.
Congress is scheduled to convene at noon Eastern time with the vote for speaker as the first order of business.