Utah is a heavy underdog for several upcoming games in ESPN’s FPI metrics

ESPN’s analytics predict Utah will be a sizable underdog in multiple Pac-12 games in the back half of the 2023 season.

The collective strength of the Pac-12 this season and a struggling Utes offense are the two most likely factors that have turned two-time defending Pac-12 champion Utah into underdogs in ESPN’s Football Power Index.

Based on these odds, the No. 18 Utes (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12), who are coming off a loss at Oregon State, face a long road back to a championship — especially if Utah doesn’t get healthier, and fast, once it returns to action following a bye this week.

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Who does ESPN’s FPI favor in Utah’s remaining games? 

Here’s a look at the remainder of Utah’s schedule and what likelihood of victory ESPN’s FPI gives the favored team in each contest, with opponent’s record in parentheses:

• California (3-2, 1-1 Pac-12) at Utah, Oct. 14 — Utah favored, 75%.
• Utah at No. 9 USC (5-0, 3-0), Oct. 21 — USC favored, 78.7%.
• No. 8 Oregon (5-0, 2-0) at Utah, Oct. 28 — Oregon favored, 77.9%.
• Arizona State (1-4, 0-2) at Utah, Nov. 4 — Utah favored, 91.4%.
• Utah at No. 7 Washington (5-0, 2-0), Nov. 11 — Washington favored, 80%.
• Utah at Arizona (3-2, 1-1), Nov. 18 — Utah favored, 66.9%.
• Colorado (3-2, 0-2) at Utah, Nov. 25 — Utah favored, 80.3%.

There is only one game where the odds are closer than others — Utah’s contest at Arizona on Nov. 8 — though even then, the Utes are still a significant favorite.

Otherwise, there is a heavy favorite, whether it’s the Utes or their opponent.

ESPN’s FPI currently projects Utah finishing with 7.8 wins and also has the Utes’ remaining strength of schedule ranked 17th in the country.

Who does ESPN’s FPI favor in BYU’s remaining games? 

BYU (4-1, 1-1 Big 12), meanwhile, is more familiar with being an underdog this season in ESPN’s FPI metrics, which is understandable given the Cougars are competing for the first time this season in the Big 12 Conference.

After the Cougars were favored in their first two games of the season, BYU was the underdog in every remaining game three weeks ago. The Cougars have gone 2-1 since then, including a 35-27 win over Cincinnati last week for BYU’s first conference victory.

Here’s a look at the remainder of BYU’s schedule and what likelihood of victory ESPN’s FPI gives the favored team in each contest, with opponent’s record in parentheses:

• BYU at TCU (3-2, 1-1 Big 12), Oct. 14 — TCU favored, 76%.
• Texas Tech (2-3, 1-1) at BYU, Oct. 21 — Texas Tech favored, 59.1%.
• BYU at No. 3 Texas (5-0, 2-0), Oct. 28 — Texas favored, 95.3%.
• BYU at West Virginia (4-1, 2-0), Nov. 4 — West Virginia favored, 68.1%.
• Iowa State (2-3, 1-1) at BYU, Nov. 11 — BYU favored, 56.1%.
• No. 12 Oklahoma (5-0, 2-0) at BYU, Nov. 18 — Oklahoma favored, 92.6%.
• BYU at Oklahoma State (2-2, 0-1), Nov. 25 — Oklahoma State favored, 52.7%.

The Cougars need two more wins to become bowl eligible, and ESPN’s FPI metrics give them the best odds for victory in their next two home games, as well their season finale.

The lone game ESPN has BYU favored in now is its Nov. 11 home matchup against Iowa State. Previously, the Cyclones were a slight favorite.

ESPN’s FPI currently projects BYU finishing with 6.1 wins and also has the Cougars remaining strength of schedule ranked No. 9 in the country.