This article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here.
Good morning and welcome to On the Trail 2024, the Deseret News’ campaign newsletter. I’m Samuel Benson, Deseret’s national political correspondent.
First things first: follow our new “On the Trail 2024” Instagram account! We’ll share exclusive content and behind-the-scenes access there. I was in Iowa over the weekend, and I shared real-time videos from Donald Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy and Nikki Haley events.
Here’s more of the Deseret News’ 2024 election coverage:
- In Iowa speech, Trump praises foreign dictators’ strength, slams ‘weak’ Biden
- Presidential debate coming to Utah
- GOP presidential candidates finally say it: Character matters
- Gov. Cox wants to see ‘anybody other than the two frontrunners’ at the 2024 presidential debate in Utah
The Big Idea
Year of the Independent
In past elections, independent presidential candidates have come and gone. Ross Perot set the standard in 1992, winning 19% of the popular vote. Ralph Nader ran a progressive campaign in 2000 and swayed a razor-thin election. And Evan McMullin showed promise early in 2016, polling neck-and-neck with the two major-party candidates in Utah, before fizzling out.
This election cycle, two independent candidates are stirring up early interest: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an attorney, and Cornel West, a public intellectual.
Will 2024 be the year an independent candidate wins?
Probably not. But it’s worth paying attention to these candidates for a number of reasons.
First, if voters are handed a Biden-Trump repeat, a significant portion of voters say they’d consider a third option. In some early polls, Kennedy is surpassing 20%, pulling significant support from Trump; in others, West siphons a big chunk from Biden. While neither candidate will likely win any Electoral College votes, they could certainly win enough to swing the election in any number of states. West garnering support from enough disillusioned Biden voters in Pennsylvania and Arizona, for example, could ensure a Trump victory; Kennedy winning over Trump supporters in Nevada and Georgia could hand it to Biden. And so on.
Second, there’s a good chance that Kennedy and West will be on your ballot. Several western states, like Utah, have fairly open ballot access laws: if a candidate can garner the requisite signatures and pay a filing fee, their name can appear on the ballot. Utah Gov. Spencer Cox hinted Monday that he’d like to see other options on the debate stage next year, too — Salt Lake City is scheduled to host the final debate of the 2024 cycle.
Since the first edition of this newsletter, we’ve committed to bring you “the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision.” That includes every candidate on the ballot. Last month, we brought you an exclusive interview with Kennedy; last night, we published an exclusive with West, who hosted the first in-person rally of his campaign Monday in Salt Lake City.
Both are unique in their own ways; both are outliers for their own reasons. But both could likely be on your ballot one year from now. Better start reading.
What I’m reading
An interesting Q&A with Rep. Peter Meijer, once a staunch never-Trumper and now someone who’s planning on voting for the former president. How’d he reach this point? “I would say one of the things that’s really changed between then and now is my frustration at the cynical calculation that I’ve seen on the Democratic side,” he said. ‘Did Trump Change, or Did You?’: We Asked a Pro-Impeachment Republican Why He’d Back Trump (Adam Wren, Politico)
I was at a Haley event in Newton, Iowa on Friday, when a middle-aged woman stood up during the Q&A portion and said, “I was an undecided voter when I walked in here today and I am no longer an undecided voter.” Turns out she wasn’t just any undecided voter — she was a top advisor on John McCain’s 2008 campaign and a big anti-abortion activist. Haley has received heat from some conservatives for her abortion position recently; this endorsement is big for her. Influential Anti-Abortion Activist Endorses Haley In Iowa (Stephanie Murray, The Messenger)
A schism has emerged among Hispanic voters over the past week. Univision, one of the country’s top Spanish-language TV stations, aired an interview with Trump last week. Critics said the interview was too soft on the former president. Defenders said the critiques ignore free speech. It’s an interesting peek into 2024, where Hispanic voters — a longtime Democratic holdout — could be shifting to the right. Hispanic conservatives defend Univision amid backlash over Trump interview (Azi Paybarah, The Washington Post)
Have a question for next week’s mailbag? Drop me a line at onthetrail@deseretnews.com, or reply to this email.
See you on the trail.
Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.