With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, the NFL still has a major mystery on its hands: Who will take home the MVP award this year?
Starting quarterback injuries are everywhere. Tom Brady is retired (for now), Patrick Mahomes is having a down year and no one is close to shattering any crazy records. Thus, the race for MVP is more wide open than Tyreek Hill against the Washington Commanders’ secondary.
Here’s a look at the range of candidates in the mix to earn the NFL’s highest individual honor.
Lamar Jackson
The case: Long story short, Jackson is the best player on the league’s best team. His Baltimore Ravens made that clear as they trounced the San Francisco 49ers on Christmas evening. Jackson threw for 252 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 33-19 victory.
The former Heisman Trophy winner is the straw that stirs the drink in Baltimore. He leads the NFL’s No. 4 scoring offense and has put the Ravens ahead of everyone else at 12-3 thus far.
After smoking San Francisco, the 26-year-old Jackson currently holds the highest betting odds to win his second career MVP award.
The catch: None of Jackson’s stats really jump off the page. He doesn’t rank in the top 10 for passing yards or touchdowns and is No. 8 in passer rating and QBR. Compared to his 43 total touchdown MVP campaign in 2019, his current 24 TD showing feels much less exciting.
When diving into advanced analytics, Jackson’s 0.10 expected points added (EPA) per dropback falls behind the likes of Jordan Love, Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield, among several others. The eye test loves Jackson, but the numbers aren’t as enthusiastic.
Josh Allen
The case: It’s hard to overlook 40 total touchdowns. Allen trails only Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy with 27 passing scores, adding another 13 on the ground. He ranks second in the league with a 71.5 QBR and is on pace for his fourth consecutive 4,000 yard, 30 touchdown campaign.
The catch: It’s even harder to overlook 18 turnovers. Allen has thrown 15 interceptions — the most of any AFC quarterback — with another three lost fumbles as well. Despite all the giveaways, Allen’s Buffalo squad is still set to capture a wild card berth, but to have entered the year as a legitimate Super Bowl contender and end up barely sliding into the playoffs isn’t exactly encouraging.
Tua Tagovailoa
The case: Tagovailoa leads the league’s most explosive offense, as his Dolphins rank first in both scoring (30.9 PPG) and yardage (411.5 YPG). The 25-year-old Alabama product stands atop the passing leaderboard with 4,214 yards, has tossed 26 touchdowns and currently boasts a stellar 105.4 rating.
The catch: While 11-4, Miami has struggled against other good teams. The Dolphins are 1-3 on the year against squads over .500, so how good are they really? Tagovailoa’s crew closes out the 2023 regular season against Baltimore and Buffalo for a chance to prove their legitimacy once and for all.
Additionally, Tagovailoa has enjoyed the luxury of throwing to Tyreek Hill, the league’s top receiver in 2023. Hill’s 1,641 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns are more than enough to suggest his own MVP candidacy. Neither player would hold such value without the other, so having to choose between the two to hand out hardware doesn’t seem right, even if Hill’s stats are more ridiculous for a pass-catcher than Tagovailoa’s are for a QB.
Dak Prescott
The case: Prescott has followed his career-worst 2022 season with a resurgent 2023 campaign, leading the NFL in touchdown passes (30) and passer rating (104.2) while sporting a minuscule 1.4 interception percentage.
The catch: The Cowboys quarterback keeps losing to his fellow MVP candidates. In the past two weeks alone, Prescott has fallen to Tagovailoa and Allen. He has also been bested this year by Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts and even the hapless Arizona Cardinals. If head to head matchups mean anything to MVP voters, Prescott won’t garner much respect at all.
Brock Purdy
The case: “Mr. Irrelevant” has continued to soar in San Francisco, posting a league-best 71.7 QBR with 29 touchdowns and an otherworldly 0.32 EPA per dropback.
The catch: Purdy picked the worst possible time to play his worst possible game, chucking four interceptions on Christmas against the Ravens and being overwhelmingly outdueled by Jackson. Quarterbacking all year behind an elite offensive line with explosive weapons and a dominant defense definitely raises questions regarding his own personal value, especially when appearing so pedestrian against Baltimore.
What about a non-QB?
Not since Adrian Peterson in 2012 has anyone other than a quarterback taken home MVP honors, but this year’s wacky race offers a number of compelling alternative candidates.
Much like the Tagovailoa-Hill dynamic, Purdy likely wouldn’t be anywhere near MVP consideration without help from Christian McCaffrey, who has been arguably the best overall talent in the league over the past four months. The do-it-all running back has racked up 1,932 total yards and 21 touchdowns for the 49ers, picking up an absurd 6.01 yards per touch.
Why not go with a defensive star? Myles Garrett has headlined a ferocious Cleveland Browns defense that has carried the team to a playoff berth despite starting four different QBs on the year, with Garrett himself having recorded 14 sacks, 17 tackles for loss and four forced fumbles.
Sure, it would be ridiculous for a rookie to win MVP, but Puka Nacua’s case isn’t as far-fetched as you might think. The BYU product has become an immediate superstar; he needs just 146 more receiving yards to break the all-time first year record set more than 60 years ago. Nacua has brought the LA Rams back into relevance and could push them into the playoffs with a strong final two outings.
MVP may be a long shot, but “Pukamania” should be a shoo-in for All-Pro.