The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, along with the Climate Prediction Center, published its annual predictions for the upcoming hurricane season and is forecasting a near-normal season for 2023.
Hurricane season runs from from June 1 to Nov. 30, and according to NOAA forecasters 12-17 total named storms with winds 39 mph or higher are predicted to occur this year.
“Of those, 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges,” according to NOAA.
NPR said this is the first time since 2015 that May predictions haven’t forecast an above-average number of storms.
Even with predictions for an average hurricane season, deadly landfalls can still occur, said CNN.
According to CNN, the average peak for hurricane season is in the early fall, which is also when the strongest storms usually make landfall in the U.S.
Even though the season ends on Nov. 30, CNN said storms in the past have continued well past that date.
Rick Spinrad, administrator of the NOAA, told NPR, “Remember it only takes one storm to devastate a community,” and added, “It’s time to prepare.”
Hurricane preparation
To prepare for hurricanes, people can plan ahead by preparing for possible power outages and thinking about how to look after the elderly, people with disabilities, kids and pets, according to NPR. If a storm is imminent, they can prepare to evacuate.
Spinrad said, “With a changing climate, the data and expertise NOAA provides to emergency managers and partners to support decision-making before, during and after a hurricane has never been more crucial.”
FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said, per the NOAA website, that “regardless of the number of storms predicted this season, it is critical that everyone understand their risk and heed the warnings of state and local officials. Whether you live on the coast or further inland, hurricanes can cause serious impacts to everybody in their path.”
Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, told NPR, “It’s definitely kind of a rare setup for this year.”
Concerning what Rosencrans’ team of forecasters thought about this year’s predictions, he told NPR, “When we looked at it we were definitely, like, ‘Wow, there’s a lot of uncertainty this year.’”
Criswell said ready.gov or listo.gov are good websites to visit for readiness resources, and real-time emergency alerts are available through the FEMA app, an app that helps you prepare for natural disasters.