Predicting BYU’s football season means delving into mysteries, exploring some unknowns, and doing a little mental gymnastics.
BYU is picked in some polls to finish last in the new Big 12 this season.
Is that accurate, an underestimating of this club, or a product of preseason guessing?
Last month in Arlington, Texas, a Big 12 media poll had the Cougars finishing 11th of 14 teams.
In reality, this is a very competitive conference. Outside of Texas, which is loaded, there will be a lot of infighting among teams that may not be completely equal, but could knock one another off in any given week.
This was the case a year ago.
In 2022, Texas was picked No. 1 but No. 2 Kansas State ended up winning the conference championship game. TCU, projected to finish No. 5, won the regular-season title before beating Michigan in the first round of the CFP playoffs. Favored Texas ended up No. 3 in the standings.
This is a league that cannibalizes one another.
2023 Big 12 football media preseason poll
- Texas (41), 886.
- Kansas State (14), 858.
- Oklahoma (4), 758.
- Texas Tech (4), 729.
- TCU (3), 727.
- Baylor, 572.
- Oklahoma State (1), 470.
- UCF, 463.
- Kansas, 461.
- Iowa State, 334.
- BYU, 318.
- Houston, 215.
- Cincinnati, 202.
- West Virginia, 129.
(First-place votes in parentheses).
In other words, three of four newcomers in the league were stuffed to the bottom of that poll, sans West Virginia. UCF is potentially a dark horse at No. 8. But the media busted Houston, Cincinnati and BYU to the bottom. Is that a naturally built-in bias by the established voters?
Maybe.
Many BYU projections are based on BYU’s lousy defense a year ago. Prognosticators are making their predictions on last year’s defensive stats. These include NCAA defensive rankings like the Cougars being ranked 82nd in pass yards surrendered, 98th in rush yards given up per game, 94th in yards yielded per game, and 97th in points allowed per game.
Another factor is that QB Jaren Hall is gone. Folks don’t know what to make of Kedon Slovis, his heir apparent.
No question Texas is No. 1. And if you look at who has what coming back, Kansas State and Oklahoma belong in the upper echelon.
A successful season for the Cougars will be to make it to a bowl game — win six games. To not make a bowl would signal that this team was below average and struggled.
BYU’s success in the Big 12 will hinge on four factors:
Quarterback performance and health: If Slovis doesn’t get uninjured, BYU’s offense will hold its own in a league known for offenses and defenses getting hit in the chops.
Depth: BYU has added 60 new players to the roster from an eight-win team that suffered a four-game losing streak a year ago, much of it due to injuries, including QB Jaren Hall, who played anyway.
Road wins: A big key to BYU league dominance in the WAC and MWC titles was the ability of the Cougars to win conference games on the road. There will be big games at LaVell Edwards Stadium, including Oklahoma. But if the Cougars are to move into the upper echelon of the league in 2023, they’ll need to pick up at least two wins at Kansas, TCU, Texas, West Virginia or Oklahoma State.
Defense: BYU had one of the worst defenses in the nation last year. Much of the roster turnover and staff changes were to address this challenge. Jay Hill’s defense doesn’t have to be top 30 in Year 1, but it must perform at a top 50 level to give BYU’s offense a chance to win some shootouts. Big 12 teams suffered some key QB injuries a year ago and the league race could change fast if injuries hit Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma), Will Howard (Kansas State), Jalon Daniels (Kansas), Quinn Ewers (Texas) or Tyler Shough (Texas Tech).
Here are a few preseason predictions for Kalani Sitake and his Big 12 mariners in the Cougars’ inaugural season.
- Competing in and for a conference title will change the dynamics of BYU practices, attitude and competitive spirit during this year. Independence was fun, but was also a lonely seasonal campaign in trying to find motivation. Conference standings and honors matter. So do competing for a tier of bowl games and game prep for known opponents.
- BYU’s offense will be just as productive as the one led by Zach Wilson in 2020. It will have a formidable run game, great protection and plenty of targets for Kedon Slovis to move the chains and score.
- A pundit has Slovis ranked No. 7 in the Big 12 preseason. By the end of the season he’ll be top 4 if he’s healthy. Slovis won’t be a big run threat like Jaren Hall and Wilson, but that might just keep him uninjured.
- BYU’s defense will have at least 30 sacks this season. They were next to the last in the NCAA a year ago. If Jay Hill can improve just two aspects of the defense in 2023 over 2022, it will go a long way: sacks and tackling acumen.
- While BYU doesn’t have a Tyler Allgeier on the roster, the Cougars do have Aidan Robbins and others who make the RB room the deepest and most talented in some time.
- BYU’s receivers room is deep, talented and versatile. This, plus the return of tight end Isaac Rex, will give the Cougars effective weapons and impressive rotation.
- BYU’s offensive line will produce two NFL draftees, one of them a first-round pick. This unit is deep, athletic and capable of impacting Big 12 play.
- A key to BYU’s Big 12 fortunes may lie in the first league game at Kansas. It comes right after a road trip to Arkansas. If BYU wins that game, the Cougars could win seven games — a very successful campaign — not outstanding, but a great start. A few prognosticators have predicted four or five wins for BYU. Six wins gets this squad in a bowl game.
- Bill Connelly at ESPN has BYU's win total between 5.7 and 6.3. What we’ve learned the past decade or so about the Cougars — they can beat and lose to just about anybody on the schedule.
Picking 2023 games
BYU 38, Sam Houston 14.
BYU 42, Southern Utah 10.
Arkansas 34, BYU 24.
BYU 34, Kansas 28.
BYU 37, Cincinnati 21.
BYU 37, TCU 31.
Texas Tech 42, BYU 37.
Texas 42, BYU 34.
BYU 37, West Virginia 24.
BYU 38, Iowa State 24.
Oklahoma 34, BYU 28.
Oklahoma State 41, BYU 34.
Wins: 7. Losses: 5.
