So far, the Pac-12 knows it will lose three members — USC, UCLA and Colorado — by the summer of 2024.
In recent days, though, rumors and reports of possibly more conference realignment have been spiraling out at a rapid pace.
Since Colorado announced last week that it will leave the Pac-12 to rejoin the Big 12 next year, discussions have ramped up that could potentially change the Pac-12 landscape forever.
Here’s the latest on what is happening — and being discussed — around the conference.
What we know
The Arizona Board of Regents, which governs state universities Arizona, Arizona State and Northern Arizona, has called a meeting for Thursday night, beginning at 6 p.m. MST (7 p.m. in Utah).
The agenda for the meeting indicates it’s an executive session that will include a review of assignments for Arizona State president Michael Crow and Arizona president Richard Robbins, as well as a “discussion regarding university athletics.”
This comes two days after the Arizona Board of Regents met on Tuesday, the same day Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff presented Pac-12 presidents with options for a new media rights deal, including one that was a primarily Apple TV streaming deal that would include incentivized tiers based on subscription numbers, according to ESPN’s Pete Thamel.
On Thursday, though, Action Network’s Brett McMurphy reported there’s a wrinkle to that deal — it has a quickly approaching deadline.
“Apple’s primary media rights deal w/Pac-12 expires at end of week, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ,” McMurphy tweeted. “Proposal is in ‘low $20 million’ figure per school/annually, but can fluctuate/increase based on membership size & subscription incentives, sources said.”
Thamel then reported Thursday afternoon that the Pac-12’s presidents are expected to meet Friday to discuss the Apple TV deal again, and “that myriad options are possible by then.”
Thamel also reported that Big Ten presidents have authorized league commissioner Tony Petitti to explore expansion and bring back more information on current Pac-12 members Oregon and Washington. He also indicated no offers have been made.
This comes one day after Yahoo Sports’ Dan Wetzel reported that the Big Ten had preliminary discussions about adding as many as four Pac-12 schools, with a focus on Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford.
The Washington Board of Regents, which governs the university, now has a special meeting called for Thursday at 9 p.m. PDT. The agenda item lists an executive session that will discuss “present pending or potential litigation.”
On Thursday morning, veteran Pac-12 reporter Jon Wilner — who broke the news last year that USC and UCLA were leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten — tweeted, “I expect the future of the #Pac12 to be determined in the next 24-36 hours.”
What we don’t know
So far, there are no definitive reports that Arizona and/or Arizona State will indeed follow Colorado and join the Big 12, though both schools — along with Utah — are reportedly Big 12 expansion targets, as McMurphy reported last week.
247 Sports’ Brandon Marcello reported that both Arizona and Arizona State are headed into the Board of Regents meeting without a final decision on conference membership being made, though finality could come Thursday night.
“Arizona State leadership was content with remaining in the Pac-12 and signing its grant of rights after learning the details of the Pac-12’s proposed streaming-centric deal with Apple, but the tenor changed in a matter of hours Wednesday, sources told 247Sports. By 2 p.m. Wednesday an emergency meeting of the board of regents with both Arizona and ASU’s presidents in attendance was being discussed,” Marcello wrote.
“Why the sudden change in thinking? The board of regents desires to keep Arizona and ASU in the same conference. Still, it is possible Arizona leadership receives a blessing from ASU to depart the Pac-12 and the Wildcats make their own way in the Big 12 without a partner, sources told 247Sports. Neither school enters the meeting with final decisions. Still, the discussion among the parties — presidents and the board — in executive session tonight is expected to include an imminent deadline for joint or separate resolutions.”
Marcello also reported there isn’t expected to be a vote on the school’s athletic future at the Washington Board of Regents executive session.
Wetzel said there is belief that the remaining nine teams in the Pac-12 — the aforementioned seven schools, along with Oregon State and Washington State — could choose to stay together and agree to a new media rights deal, then expand with San Diego State or other possible expansion options.
Arizona’s decision, though, currently remains the focus.
“All eyes remain on what University of Arizona decides — go to Big 12 or stay in Pac-12?” Wetzel wrote.
Regarding the Big Ten, a major question is whether adding any additional Pac-12 teams makes financial sense. The conference agreed to a new, seven-year deal with broadcast partners CBS, Fox, FS1, NBC, Peacock and the Big Ten Network that begins this season.
“If Big Ten does decide to expand and offer membership it will be at a cut rate for some multiyear period (maybe 50-60 percent of media rights revenue that will range between $50-65 million annually). Still equal or better than most options for Oregon, et al.,” Wetzel wrote, while adding that the next 24 hours “will determine a lot.”
McMurphy added context to the Big Ten’s expansion situation, referring to an Action Network report from last year that the conference “cleared and vetted” Oregon and Washington as Big Ten members if it made financial sense.
“There is no more research or information needed on Oregon & Washington,” Big Ten sources told McMurphy. “We have everything we need.”
What it could mean for Utah
Outside of being a part of speculation by a variety of national reports that Utah could also join the Big 12 alongside Arizona and Arizona State, there is no concrete evidence thus far that the Utes either 1) have an invitation, or 2) have accepted an invite to the conference.
The University of Utah’s Board of Trustees, which governs the school, currently has a regularly scheduled meeting for Aug. 8 on its calendar, but nothing scheduled before then, per the school’s administrative website.
Given Utah’s success since moving from the Mountain West Conference to the Pac-12 in 2011, it’s little surprise that the Utes would be a coveted school.
The Utes are the two-time defending Pac-12 football champions, have won 10 or more games three of the past four seasons and are a perennial top-20 program.
The question is, how far does the Big 12 want to expand?
After Colorado’s defection last week, CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd reported that the Big 12’s preference is to expand to 14 members in the current round of conference realignment.
If both Arizona and Arizona State were to both leave for the Big 12 next year, that would give the conference 15 teams starting in 2024 once Oklahoma and Texas leave for the SEC.
Because the Pac-12’s current media rights agreement expires after the 2023-24 season, Pac-12 teams can leave following the upcoming year with no financial penalty.
In recent days, numerous journalists have indicated that Utah is one of the primary Big 12 expansion targets within the Pac-12 footprint, along with Arizona and Arizona State.
Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger said the Pac-12’s dooms-day scenario would be if Utah, Arizona and Arizona State all leave the conference.
“The decision from Arizona, Arizona State and Utah could have a cataclysmic impact on the college sports landscape, spanning coast to coast and impacting as many as five leagues,” he wrote Tuesday.