One of the many lingering questions following a week of seismic conference realignment is this: what will happen to the four remaining Pac-12 members?
With five more Pac-12 schools joining the list of universities leaving for other power conferences (there are now eight in total) beginning in 2024, only Stanford, California, Oregon State and Washington State are left in the 108-year old conference.
“The great history and tradition of this conference has been severely damaged. The best interest of the student athlete hasn’t been served,” Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes told the Oregonian.
“... I’m furious because it puts this university in harm’s way and our student athletes in harm’s way. There’s some damage done that we’re going to have to mitigate.”
What options are out there for Stanford, California, Oregon State and Washington State as they try to determine what their athletic futures will hold?
Here’s a look at what media outlets have reported or analyzed about the future of the Pac-12 and its four members since Friday’s whirlwind changes.
How will finances play into the future for these four schools?
ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura described the forgotten four’s plight well when he said that “Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State are without a natural landing spot that would ensure their long-term stability.”
Two important factors to consider when discussing the four schools’ athletic futures include the financial ramifications of whatever moves they ultimately make, and whether the four can find a way to keep the Pac-12 from losing its status as an Autonomy Five (or Power Five) conference.
The Pac-12 will remain in its current form through the end of the 2023-24 academic year, when the league’s current media rights deal with ESPN and Fox expires and the eight leaving members can depart without an exit fee.
During the 2022 fiscal year, the league distributed $37 million in revenue to each member institution, according to USA Today’s Steve Berkowitz.
That gives the remaining four teams one more year of financial certainty at this point.
Stanford, California, Oregon State and Washington State are staffed like power conferences, though, and serious financial cuts are expected to be a part of the equation if none of these schools can find their way back into a Power Five conference in the immediate future.
Are there possibilities to join another Power Five conference?
On Monday, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported the ACC will engage in two calls to preliminarily discuss the possibility of adding Stanford and Cal. One of those calls will include ACC presidents and chancellors, while the other will be for athletic directors, Thamel said.
Thamel added that “It’s a fluid landscape for the four leftover Pac-12 schools,” and that there’s a lot to sort out.
“It’s complicated,” an ACC source told Thamel. “There’s a significant travel expense. I think it’s going to be all over the board with both the ADs and the presidents in what they may want to do. [Cal and Stanford] would likely have to take a reduced share. Eventually, though, they’re going to want to become a full share.”
The California Board of Regents has also called a meeting Tuesday morning to discuss, as the agenda lists, the Golden Bears’ Pac-12 membership.
The ACC, which currently stands at 14 member institutions, is locked into a media rights deal with ESPN through 2036. Last year, the ACC distributed between $37.9 to $41.3 million to each of its members, according to Berkowitz.
“The biggest question in a potential addition of Cal and Stanford by the ACC is whether expanding with those programs would bring enough prominence into the conference to raise the average annual value (AAV) of its media rights contract with ESPN. ACC schools are presently scheduled to earn $30 million from the deal, less than the Big 12 average ($31.7 million) and about half as much as their peers in the Big Ten and SEC,” CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd wrote.
“If adding the Golden Bears and Cardinal did increase the ACC’s AAV, would it be enough to satisfy Clemson, Florida State, Miami and other programs who are frustrated with their shares?”
Last week, when reports surfaced that the Big Ten was exploring expansion, Yahoo Sports’ Dan Wetzel reported that the Big Ten was also discussing Stanford and Cal, if the league decided to move to 20 schools.
That didn’t come to fruition.
“For the Bay Area schools — Cal and Stanford — the Big Ten has routinely been mentioned as a possible destination, but that was driven more by the idea that Big Ten presidents would be keen on an alignment more for academic reasons,” Bonagura wrote. “From a media rights value standpoint, though, neither moves the needle in a way that incentivizes invitations in the current landscape.”
For Oregon State and Washington State, who do not carry the same academic cachet as Stanford and Cal, there are apparently few options joining another Power Five conference at this point.
That leads into one scenario that could work geographically but present financial challenges.
Preliminary talks with Mountain West Conference about a merger
One potential solution that would come with its share of issues to iron out is merging with the other Football Bowl Subdivision conference in the western United States.
On Monday, Yahoo Sports’ Ross Dellenger reported that MWC presidents are meeting Monday night to discuss the conference’s “possible acquisition” of the four remaining Pac-12 members, specifically Oregon State and Washington State.
One question is, do the teams consolidate under the Pac-12 name, do the Pac-12 castoffs become part of a bigger Mountain West, or do they rebrand as something new?
Dellenger said a decision isn’t expected Monday night.
“Even with a merger, there is doubt that the Pac-12 will retain its autonomous five (A5) powers, something that the Division I Board of Directors controls. A5 status gives more legislative authority and a higher revenue distribution to the five leagues: Pac-12, Big 12, SEC, Big Ten and ACC,” Dellenger wrote.
The San Diego Union-Tribune’s Mark Zeigler noted the difficulties in deciding whether to join forces under either the Pac-12 or MWC banner.
Would they join under the Pac-12 name, which is tied to power conference status and where they could retain millions in College Football Playoff and NCAA Tournament distributions, or would it be under the MWC name, to allow Mountain West teams to avoid hefty exit fees?
“It’s highly unlikely the Pac-12 (Pacific Coast Conference?) will be able to add from the MWC. MWC schools would need to pay a $33-34 million buyout to leave after this season and the math wouldn’t make sense with the diminished $ distribution in a new-look Pac,” Bonagura wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, in analyzing the financial ramifications.
“It’s much more plausible for the remaining Pac schools to head in the opposite direction. MWC annual distribution is around $6 million and is set for small increases. Adding *whatever combination* from the Pac would lead to another increase. OSU/WSU are the most obvious options.”
Zeigler offered his own solution.
“You dissolve the Mountain West in name only to eliminate exit fees, then move most or all members (and their NCAA Tournament units) into the Pac-12 shell so you can retain its name and power conference status,” he wrote.
Zeigler suggested taking it one step further, thanks to the unequal number of football and basketball members in the MWC. Hawaii is a football-only member in the conference, which has 12 teams in football and 11 in basketball.
“Then entice Gonzaga to join as a non-football affiliate to further enhance an already solid collection of men’s basketball programs,” Zeigler said.
A total merger would lead to 16 teams, if Washington State, Oregon State, California and Stanford all merged with the MWC.
Due to their status as Tier 1 academic institutions and the lack of others in the MWC, though, several national reporters have indicated Cal and Stanford would likely be reluctant to join forces with the MWC.
Utah State coach Blake Anderson, whose team is coming off a 6-7 season but won the MWC title just two years ago, said he is in favor of a potential merger with the Pac-12.
“Personally, I would love to see it. I hope it happens,” he said in a team video shared on X. “We’d be ready for it. We’ve played a lot of those teams already and played well. Our league has played well against that league. A merger sounds like it just makes a lot of sense for moving forward. We’ll see what happens.”
Bonagura said that Oregon State and Washington State would be “cultural fits” in the MWC and could compete for conference championships, but financial stresses would require changes.
“The problem here is that both athletic departments have long operated with the expectation of $30 million or more in TV money and in the Mountain West, they won’t get anywhere near that. That shortfall would force both schools to essentially reinvent how their athletic departments operate,” Bonagura wrote.
The Beavers, at least, have a significant tie to the Mountain West — Barnes was the athletic director at Utah State from 2008-15.
“We will move expeditiously and work with others,” Barnes told the Oregonian, on a possible timeline for finding a conference home. “Our intent is to work with the remaining Pac-12 members; it’s a strong option. We’ll look at other opportunities. The timing is something we want to pursue as soon as possible, but we have some time to get it right.”
Is football independence an option for Stanford or Cal?
Several college football writers, including Bay Area reporter Jon Wilner, suggested that one option for California and Stanford could be going independent in football, if other conference affiliations don’t materialize.
Both schools have the academic prestige and reside in the No. 6 TV market in the Bay Area, according to the Nielsen ratings.
Such an option isn’t realistic for Oregon State and Washington State.
It could provide a temporary solution for Stanford and/or Cal, and could work out much like it did for BYU, who left the MWC and went independent in football the same year Utah joined the Pac-12.
It’s worth noting that it took BYU a dozen years before finding a home in the Power Five, as the Cougars head into their first Big 12 season in 2023.
With so much realignment, there will be nonconference matchup needs for teams in the near future — for instance, BYU has games scheduled with Utah and Arizona in upcoming years, and those are expected to open up potential nonconference slots, since they would now be league games.
On Monday, Utah athletic director Mark Harlan addressed the possibility of scheduling games in the future with teams remaining in the Pac-12 when he and Utah president Taylor Randall discussed the Utes’ move to the Big 12.
“First of all, there’s incredible people there. … It’s a very high relationship business in intercollegiate athletics. We compete against each other at a very high level,” Harlan said. “... Maybe the (Pac-12) will find a path forward, but right now, way too early for me to think about anything like that with scheduling. We’ll see how it all plays out in the coming months.”
What would California and Stanford do with the rest of their sports, though?
Stanford currently sponsors 30 varsity sports while California sponsors 28, and they would need a conference home. There’s also the possibility the schools would have to cut sports — Stanford did during the COVID-19 pandemic, only to reverse that decision later.
Financially, keeping the Olympic sports afloat would prove a challenge if either Stanford or Cal chose to go independent in football.
“Of the four Pac-12 schools soon to be left, the Cardinal have by far the biggest brand nationally. Few could blame Stanford officials for at least thinking about setting out on their own,” the San Francisco Chronicle’s Connor Letournaeu wrote.
“However, Notre Dame has only thrived as an independent because it makes $22 million a year from its TV deal with NBC — the type of contract that would be impossible for the Cardinal to secure by themselves. There is also the matter of sports other than football. Notre Dame has aligned with the ACC for non-football teams, but there is no obvious league with which Stanford could work out a similar arrangement.”
One final option to keep the Pac-12 brand alive
In his report on the ACC’s discussions about potentially adding California and Stanford, Thamel discussed another option that could keep the four remaining Pac-12 teams together, while aiming at building the league back up through expansion over multiple years.
“Among them, those four schools have looked at adding a few other schools to get the league over six programs for next year, which could in theory keep NCAA units and some form of CFP payout. They’d then build a West Coast-based league once the buyout from Mountain West schools is reduced after the 2024-25 season,” Thamel wrote.
“They’d have to potentially look to AAC or Sun Belt schools in Texas for immediate members, but the allure of a partnership with such prestigious academic schools would at least cause presidents to listen.”