Conference realignment has completely altered the college football landscape.
It began this season in the Big 12, the AAC and Conference USA and will continue in earnest next year in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12.
Some of the biggest programs in the sport are changing leagues, which is expected to bring about bigger matchups and greater viewership.
But just how much of a change in viewership is expected? Or rather, how much will Power Five conferences’ value, based off TV exposure, grow or decline?
According to Nielsen.com, projections are as follows:
- The Big Ten, which has a seven-year deal expected to pay member schools between $80 million-$100 million annually and added USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, is expected to see an increase in total football TV exposure value of 25%, the largest increase in value of any conference.
- The SEC, meanwhile, is projected to see its value jump by 15%, thanks to the additions of Texas and Oklahoma.
- The Big 12, which lost Texas and Oklahoma, but added BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF, is expected to see jump in value of 1%.
- The ACC, which added Cal and Stanford, is expected to see an increase in value of 13% from 2022 to 2024.
- The Pac-12, which lost 10 of its 12 schools to the Big Ten and Big 12, is the only conference projected to be a loser, with a drop in value of 88%.
Nielsen’s analysis notes that conference realignment, while of course offering more marque matchups that bring in viewers in the multi-millions, will also have a real impact for local markets.
Matchups like UCLA and Oregon, for instance, will now draw viewers from across the country, when those games used to be largely limited to households in the Los Angeles and Portland areas.
Moreover, the addition of a team like Colorado to the Big 12 will also increase local TV viewers, though in this specific case it is the result of Deion Sanders taking the Buffaloes’ head coaching job.
All told, recent realignment has increased potential viewership pools for teams, largely due to three power conferences expanding across the country, which is expected to benefit both national and local markets.
“There’s no mistaking the appeal of NCAA college football among sports fans, especially when big matchups come to town,” the analysis reads. “And while marquee rivalries will always command national TV exposure, we can see how local market TV viewership contributes to the value associated with the teams involved with the most recent changes among the Power 5 NCAA conferences.”