When KSL-TV’s Kevin Eubank rolls out his seven-day forecast that shows one storm after another, he could also be referencing No. 18 BYU’s next seven games in the Big 12.
For much of Utah, it’s snow, snow and more snow. For BYU (12-3, 0-2), it’s at UCF, Iowa State, at Texas Tech, No. 2 Houston, No. 25 Texas, at West Virginia and at No. 9 Oklahoma — and that’s just the first half of the Big 12 schedule.
The storm pattern, on the court and in the atmosphere, has shifted from the surprisingly pleasant November and December to a potentially dicey January and February. Even as local golfers teed off on New Year’s Day while the Cougars were brandishing a 12-1 record and No. 2 NET ranking, all parties involved knew the storms would eventually come.
They are here.
Some are bigger than others, but each one can pack its own punch. On Tuesday, while snowstorms pounded northern Utah, No. 14 Baylor used a second-half storm surge to take down BYU 81-72 in Waco, Texas.
In the KSL Weather Center, Eubank has graphs and charts and computer projections to help him determine the arrival and strength of an approaching storm. If he dons the white coat it means snow. Likewise, the Big 12 has rankings and computer projections to determine how challenging each game will be.
The Cougars tipped off at Baylor as a one-point underdog and built a 39-33 halftime lead. BYU started the second half looking like a top-20 team — defending, rebounding and passing up good shots for better ones. Trevin Knell’s 3-pointer extended the Cougars’ advantage to 45-36 with 17:52 to play.
That’s when BYU lost control of the game. Eerily, like the second-half demise against Cincinnati, in the conference home opener, a flurry of mistakes, missed rebounds, rushed shots and a rash of foul calls stirred the Bears out of hibernation. Baylor woke up and took off on a 10-0 run and finished the game by outscoring BYU 44-26.
In both the road and home openers against the Bears and the Bearcats, the Cougars showed up with plenty of fight, but couldn’t finish. These are just the first two of 18 conference games. There are plenty of opportunities to get it right, starting Saturday at UCF, but as the 0-2 start indicates, none of them will be easy.
Storms make navigating a challenge, both on icy roads and sidewalks and the metaphor also works for college basketball. It’s just as easy to lose focus and slip and fall walking out to the car as it is to lose second-half leads and tumble in the standings.
Finding their footing and maintaining it during the second-half squalls is the lesson for BYU from the first two storms.
Nature’s performance will work to offset an underachieving start to winter for Utah’s snowpack. At the same time, the Cougars are challenged to keep their storms from wiping out an overachieving start to the season.
Kept in perspective, storms can be welcomed. Utah always needs water, and the resort industry needs happy skiers and snowboarders. For the Cougars, no matter how hard things get in the Big 12, this is still better than anywhere they have ever been.
REO Speedwagon’s 1981 hit “Ridin’ the Storm Out” should become BYU’s secondary fight song to “Rise and Shout.”
“Ridin’ the storm out, waitin’ for the thaw out
On a full moon night in the Rocky Mountain winter.”
The Cougars are in a conference where teams are rewarded for surviving. If BYU can ride the storms out and grab a few wins here and there, they will remain in a position to make the NCAA Tournament in more favorable conditions. The analytics show they are more than capable, but their start-to-finish performance needs to improve.
Even with back-to-back setbacks, the Cougars NET ranking has only dropped from No. 3 to No. 4. Whether they remain in the AP Top 25 poll, where they have been since Nov. 27, will likely depend on what happens Saturday at UCF (4 p.m., ESPN+), but the NET ranking is the one that is used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee.
Eubank’s charts show there is no snow in the forecast for Orlando, but you can bet a storm will be waiting for BYU. That’s life in the Big 12 and the sooner they figure out how to ride one out and win — the better off their NET ranking will be.
Dave McCann is a contributor to the Deseret News and is a play-by-play announcer and show host for BYUtv/ESPN+. He co-hosts “Y’s Guys” at ysguys.com and is the author of the children’s book “C is for Cougar,” available at deseretbook.com.