- A new Labor Department. report found 12 month jobs data overshot by over 900,000 positions
- If confirmed, the adjustment would be the biggest on record.
- The White House says the correction is further evidence of problematic federal reporting.
A U.S. Department of Labor report Tuesday shows job hiring data collected in the 12 months ended in March overshot by 911,000 positions, one of the biggest one year revisions on record.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, an agency of the Labor Department, makes regular revisions to its survey-driven employment data as additional information, such as late survey submissions and other sources, including state unemployment insurance tax records, come in.
But the jobs number adjustment released Tuesday, a downward revision of 911,000 positions is 50% higher than last year’s correction and, if confirmed, would be the largest on record, according to a report from CNBC. The preliminary revision estimate will be confirmed in a final tally early next year.
Economists say the new data suggests the U.S. labor sector has been in much weaker condition over the past year and more recent reporting indicates further declines.
“The BLS’ preliminary benchmark revisions to nonfarm payrolls show a much weaker labor market over most of 2024 and early 2025 than previously estimated,” Oren Klachkin, market economist at Nationwide Financial, told CNBC. “Importantly, the slower job creation implies income growth was also on a softer footing even prior to the recent rise in policy uncertainty and economic slowdown we’ve seen since the spring. This should give the Fed more impetus to restart its cutting cycle.”
The revision follows closely behind last week’s monthly jobs data for August which showed dismal labor sector growth and an uptick in unemployment.
U.S. employers added only 22,000 new positions in August, falling far short of the 75,000 predicted in a Dow Jones survey of economists ahead of the Employment Situation Report for the month. The national unemployment rate moved up to 4.3% in August, the highest level since 2021.
The monthly report, which compiles data gathered in surveys of both U.S. households and businesses, found job gains in some employment sectors were offset by losses in federal government positions, which declined by 15,000 last month, while manufacturing lost 12,000 jobs and wholesale trade employment jobs also dropped by 12,000 positions.
Labor sector in decline before Trump took office
Tuesday’s record revision reflects that a downswing in the U.S. labor market was well under way before the start of President Donald Trump’s second term in office.
While the White House didn’t offer public comment last week following the August jobs report release, on Tuesday press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the large revision further undermined confidence in BLS’s labor market reporting.
“Today, the BLS released the largest downward revision on record proving that President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken,” Leavitt said in a press statement. “This is exactly why we need new leadership to restore trust and confidence in the BLS’s data on behalf of the financial markets, businesses, policymakers, and families that rely on this data to make major decisions.”
Trump has long lambasted the work of the BLS and on Aug. 1, fired the head of the agency, Erika McEntarfer, who had served as the BLS commissioner since January 2024.
Just days after the termination, Trump took to social media to offer further criticism of the BLS along with claims the agency had manipulated jobs data ahead of the 2024 election.
“Head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics did the same thing just before the Presidential Election, when she lifted the numbers for jobs to an all time high,” Trump posted Aug. 3. “I then won the Election, anyway, and she readjusted the numbers downward, calling it a mistake, of almost one million jobs. A SCAM! She did it again, with another massive “correction,” and got FIRED! She had the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years."