- Adobe Analytics predicts 2025 holiday online shopping will exceed $250 billion for the first time.
- AI, social media influencers and discounts will drive increased consumer traffic.
- Electronics, health tech and gaming gear will be among most sought-after gifts this year.
In spite of lagging confidence, persistent inflation and a weakening jobs market, U.S. consumers are expected to spend a record amount in online purchases over the upcoming holiday shopping season, according to a new report.
On Monday, Adobe Analytics released its annual winter holiday shopping forecast, projecting a record $253.4 billion in online sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, a 5.3% year-over-year increase.
Adobe analysts expect big jumps in sales driven by artificial intelligence tools, social media influencers as well as deep discounts on a wide array of goods.
And some of those discounts are expected to arrive well before the traditional winter holiday shopping window as Adobe predicts preseason discounts in October will entice some shoppers to start their holiday spending early.
For Amazon’s Prime Day event — now an industrywide moment for e-commerce with deals happening broadly across U.S. retailers — Adobe forecasts $9 billion will be spent on Oct. 7 and Oct. 8, representing 6.2% growth over last year. Discounts for the early event are expected to peak at 17% off regular price listings.
Here are some of the key highlights, per Adobe’s forecast:
- Cyber Monday will remain the top online shopping day, with expected sales of $14.2 billion, up 6.3% over last year
- Black Friday will see faster growth, up 8.3% to $11.7 billion
- Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to reach $6.4 billion, a nearly 5% jump over 2024
- Adobe anticipates a record 10 days this season where online sales will exceed $5 billion, up from 7 days in 2024
- Cyber Week, which runs from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, will drive $43.7 billion, or 17.2% of the season’s total spending
The growing role of AI in shopping
Adobe notes generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are changing how consumers act online, evolving as a helpful research assistant ahead of purchase decisions. Adobe analysts say the first material surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites, measured by shoppers clicking on a link, during the 2024 season, with traffic increasing 1,300% from the previous year.
For the 2025 season, Adobe is forecasting AI traffic to rise by 520%, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. AI services are expected to be used most for categories including toys, electronics, jewelry and personal care items.
In a survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers conducted in September, over one-third report having used an AI-powered service for online shopping, with top use cases including research, product recommendations, finding deals and gift inspiration.
Adobe predicts the top consumer categories this year
- Electronics: $57.5 billion
- Apparel: $47.6 billion
- Furniture: $31.1 billion
Smaller but fast-growing categories include:
- Groceries: $23.5B
- Cosmetics: $8.4B
Notable surges expected in:
- Home improvement: Power tools, up 1,060%; TVs, up 915%; Smart home tech, up 615%
- Health tech: Activity trackers, up 1,055%; Smartwatches, up 950%
- Gaming: Consoles, up 1,040%; games up 830%
Hottest holiday products for 2025
Adobe projects these will be among the top selling items over the 2025 winter holiday shopping season:
Gaming — Nintendo Switch 2, PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X, Call of Duty: Black Ops 7
Tech and gadgets — iPhone 17, Samsung Galaxy S25, DJI Osmo Pocket 3, Oura Ring 4
Toys — Disney Stitch Puppetronic, LEGO sets, Labubu dolls, MrBeast Lab Toys