- A new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll explored consumers' holiday spending plans.
- Overall spending is expected to increase, but many families are tightening their budgets.
- More online holiday shopping likely to drive most of the spending increase.
Despite U.S. economic conditions that are pummeling consumers with persistent inflation, skyrocketing housing costs and a softening labor market, retail experts predict the 2025 holiday shopping season will easily top last year’s spending volumes.
But insights gathered in a new Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll show that many consumers are making cost-conscious adjustments to their household holiday budgets this year under the cloud of mounting fiscal challenges.
In its annual holiday retail sales forecast, professional services giant Deloitte estimates winter holiday sales are likely to increase between 2.9% and 3.4% this year. In 2024, holiday sales grew by 4.2% in the same period.
Online shopping will be a primary drive of holiday sales growth this year, according to the report, with e-commerce sales volumes expected to rise by 7% to 9%.
“We expect this holiday season to demonstrate the resiliency of consumers as they continue to face economic uncertainty,” said Natalie Martini, vice chair of Deloitte U.S. retail and consumer products. “Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power.”
Last month, Adobe Analytics released its yearly forecast of online holiday shopping volumes, projecting a record $253.4 billion in online sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, a 5.3% year-over-year increase.
Adobe analysts expect big jumps in sales driven by artificial intelligence tools, social media influencers as well as deep discounts on a wide array of goods.
Here’s what our new poll revealed
Data collected in new statewide and national surveys conducted for the Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics by Morning Consult finds a sizable swath of respondents who say they are set to pare back holiday spending this year.
Utah polling was conducted Nov. 7-13 of 607 registered Utah voters and comes with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. National polling was conducted Nov. 7-13 of 1,745 registered voters and comes with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
When asked to choose the categories that best reflect their 2025 holiday spending plans, almost half of Utahns, 49%, said they will spend less than last year. About a third, 32%, report they will spend about the same as they did in 2024 and 11% are planning on upping their holiday budgets this time around.
Responses to the same question in the national sample tracked very closely to Utahns’ sentiments with 47% saying they’re cutting holiday spending, 34% matching last year’s holiday budget and 9% reporting plans to increase holiday spending.
Bigger variations on holiday budget plans were seen when parsing the data by income levels.
Over half, 55%, of Utahns who make less than $50,000 per year said they will reduce their holiday budgets this year, while only 38% of those making over $100,000 reported the same. Among national participants, 46% of those reporting income of less than $50,000 per year plan on cutting holiday spending, while among those earning over $100,000, 40% will also make cuts.
Age group also played a role when it comes to respondents’ holiday spending plans this year.
Among GenZ Utah poll participants, those born between 1997-2012, 38% said they’ll cut holiday budgets in 2025 but 63% of those born between 1965-1980, the GenXers, are planning on making cuts.
In the national survey, just 30% of GenZers are cutting holiday budgets while baby boomers, those born between 1946-1964, had the biggest portion of holiday budget-cutters at 51%.
So what do those holiday budgets look like?
What consumers plan to spend this holiday season
A plurality of respondents in both Utah and national surveys, 48% and 46%, respectively, report they plan to spend less than $500 on holiday shopping this season. A similar portion of Utah and national poll participants, 17% and 16% respectively, expect to spend over $1,000 while 30% of Utah respondents and 26% of national participants have budgets in the $500-$999 range.
Through an income lens, Utahns who earn over $100,000 were the biggest percentage of those reporting plans to spend over $1,000 on holiday shopping at 27%, while only 6% of those earning less than $50,000 per year said the same. National data was similar with 33% of those earning over $100,000 planning on spending more than $1,000 and 7% among those earning less than $50,000 per year.
On a generational basis, the biggest percentage of those aiming to spend over $1,000 this holiday season, 21%, are baby boomers, while GenZers had the lowest at 11%. Spending differences between age groups was less pronounced among national poll participants with the percentage of those reporting plans to spend over $1,000 ranging from 9% (baby boomers) to 15% (millennials, those born between 1981-1996) among the four generational tiers.
In its annual holiday spending forecast released earlier this month, the National Retail Federation forecasts retail spending will breach $1 trillion for the first time this year over the Nov. 1 — Dec. 31 holiday shopping season.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay said in the report. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
The NRF projects consumers will spend $890.49 per person on average this year on holiday gifts, food, decorations and other seasonal items. The amount is the second highest in the survey’s 23-year history.
