Sales started weeks ago, which raises the question: should consumers start shopping early or wait for the official Black Friday? What began as a single day of deals has expanded to a weekend, then a full week and to the giant it is now, essentially an entire month of promotions.
Retailers are competing fiercely to lock in consumer spending before their rivals, pushing discounts earlier every year.
Retail analyst Hitha Herzog told ABC News that retailers are also relying heavily on dynamic and surge pricing to maximize profits. While dynamic pricing has been driven by basic supply and demand — prices rising when demand increases and supply tightens — technology has transformed how quickly retailers can respond. Herzog explained that price adjustments that once took days or weeks can now happen within minutes.
Meanwhile, consumers are entering the season under financial strain amid economic uncertainty. A survey by Afterpay found that 38% of shoppers are already feeling financially stressed, and 35% worry about their ability to afford holiday gifts. Even so, many plan to spend: 25% of respondents expect to put up at least $1,000 toward holiday purchases.
Because many retailers now shift prices in real time and run overlapping sales, a 2024 Gartner survey found that 68% of consumers say they feel “taken advantage of” when brands use dynamic pricing.
Despite the chaos of early and fluctuating sales, some deals are worth pursuing. Here’s what to buy and what to wait for.
What is worth buying this week?
Historically, strong Black Friday deals include:
- TVs and electronics, which are often subsidized and typically hit their lowest prices until next November. According to Popular Mechanics, now is the time to upgrade home theaters with many TVs on deep discounts for 2025.
- Small kitchen appliances — Instant Pots, air fryers, blenders — which tend to see deep discounts, according to Forbes.
- Large appliances such as refrigerators, washers and dryers often hit their lowest prices during Black Friday season, per TechRadar.
Items to hold off on include:
- Some clothing and toys clearance cycles often start in January and some toys get better discounts in December or just before Christmas rather than during Black Friday, according to the Krazy Coupon Lady.
- Fitness equipment and seasonal items often see steeper markdowns around the New Year, as detailed in an article by Everyday Health.
- Mattresses are typically on a better deal over Presidents’ Day according to a 2022 ConsumerReports article, though results vary by brand and model.
Shoppers looking to verify whether a deal is truly good can use price-tracking tools. CamelCamelCamel tracks millions of Amazon products and shows their full price history, making it easy to see whether a discount is genuine or just a temporary drop. Honey, best known for its automatic coupon finder, also offers a price-tracking feature that works across several major online retailers. Additional tools and options — including broader multi-retailer trackers — are highlighted in a list detailed by Scrapeless.
According to a recent BCG consumer report, awareness of major sales events remains extremely high: 96% for Black Friday (up 1 point over 2024), 84% for Cyber Monday (up 2 points) and about 33% for Singles’ Day (up six points). Despite ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, 79% of consumers who are aware of discounts say they intend to shop.
Last year’s data also shows how powerful flexible payments have become. During the 2024 holiday shopping season, Afterpay users generated $5.1 billion in sales, while retailers saw a 33% lift in spending compared with 2023.
“Consumers are approaching this holiday season with both caution and determination,” said Tanuj Parikh, head of Commercial, North America, at Cash App Commerce.
“With economic uncertainty and price volatility challenging shoppers over the past year, the demand for greater choice and flexibility at checkout has never been higher. Fortunately, today’s consumers have access to more financial tools than ever, many right on their smartphones, that empower them to manage their budgets effectively and make confident decisions, ensuring they can still enjoy their holiday season,” he continued.