- Wednesday report from Adobe Analytics finds online holiday shoppers spent nearly $18 billion so far
- Biggest discounts of the year will show up during Cyber Week
- While discounts matter, AI and social media play growing role in influencing purchase decisions
In spite of a spate of economic challenges, U.S. consumers have spent nearly $18 billion in online purchases so far this holiday shopping season, up 7.5% from the same time last year and on track for a record $253 billion for the period, according to Wednesday report from Adobe Analytics.
Adobe analysts say the strong spending rate from Nov. 1 to Nov. 23 has been driven in part by early deals but the best bargains for consumers are still ahead. For the first 23 days of the season, discounts for electronics peaked at 12% off list prices but are expected to hit 29% on Cyber Monday.
For those interested in formulating a strategy for their online shopping this year, Adobe has identified best category discounts by shopping day over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend:
Thanksgiving is expected to have the biggest discounts for sporting goods at 19%.
Black Friday is set to have the biggest discounts for televisions at 23%; toys at 27%; and appliances at 18%.
Cyber Monday: the biggest discounts on the big day for online shopping will be for apparel at 25% and computers at 23%.
The National Retail Federation is projecting a record 186.9 million people are planning to shop from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, up more than 3 million total shoppers from the previous record of 183.4 million last year.
“The holidays are an important part of many consumers’ budgets, and that trend is especially true this season,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a recent report. “As a record number of shoppers are expected this Thanksgiving weekend, retailers are prepared to meet the needs of consumers with great value and convenience.”
Hottest holiday items for 2025
So far this holiday shopping season, electronics have been the top purchase category, generating $17.7 billion with furniture at $9.7 billion and groceries, $8 billion, rounding out the top three.
Goods for the home have also been popular this year with refrigerator/freezer sales up 106% over last year, exercise equipment purchases up 102% and sales of garage storage products coming in at 94% over the same period last year.
Here’s a list of the hottest online gift item purchases in the first 23 days of the 2025 holiday shopping season, according to Adobe’s tracking:
Toys: Fisher-Price Little People, LEGO sets, Mini Brands capsules, Bluey toys/action figures, Ms. Rachel learning toys, Kpop Demon Hunters toys/action figures, and Disney Stitch Puppetronic
Gaming consoles: Nintendo Switch 2, Xbox Series X and PlayStation 5
Video games: Mario Kart World, Battlefield 6, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, NBA 2k26 and Pokemon Legends: Z-A
Other hot sellers: skin care gift sets, stuffed animals and plush toys, Skylight calendars, stainless steel water bottles, e-readers, Hatch alarm clock, DJI Osmo Pocket 3, Oura Ring 4, Red light therapy devices, movie projectors, bag charms, blind box toys, and bluetooth headphones
AI and social media play increasing role
While holiday shoppers are typically looking for the best deals on their holiday gift buying quests, Adobe researchers say artificial intelligence platforms along with social media influencers will have an even bigger impact on consumer shopping decisions in 2025.
Generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are changing how consumers act online, becoming a helpful assistant for compiling research before making a purchase, according to the new report. Adobe observed the first material surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites, measured by shoppers clicking on a link, during the 2024 season, with traffic increasing 1,300% year-over-year.
In the first 23 days of the 2025 season, AI traffic rose by a significant 830% over last year. AI tools have been used most for categories including toys, video games, appliances, personal care products and electronics. Adobe also observed that shoppers who landed on a U.S. retail site from an AI service were 30% more likely to buy something.
Adobe also noted social media platforms have been a substantial growth driver so far this season, with its share of online revenue — purchases attributed to social traffic — up 29% over last year, a significant increase from comparable period last season where growth was at 5%. Adobe researchers note that while major channels such as paid search and email continue to be reliable drivers of traffic and sales online, consumers are increasingly turning to social media to discover and learn about new products.
Per Adobe’s survey, 53% of shoppers have considered or purchased a product based on a recommendation from a celebrity or social media influencer and 83% of shoppers say they use promo codes or cash-back sites for holiday shopping.