Mustafa Suleyman, head of Microsoft’s AI team, has warned that artificial intelligence could soon take over a majority of white-collar jobs.
Suleyman described “professional-grade AGI” as an AI model capable of performing almost everything a human professional does.
He predicted major workforce changes in the near future, saying nearly everyone who works on a computer could be at risk of job automation by AI within 12 to 18 months.
“Most of these tasks will be fully automated by AI within the next 12 to 18 months,” he told Business Insider.
Suleyman also predicted that within two to three years, AI agents would be able to handle the workflow of large institutions more efficiently.
As AI models continue to improve, Suleyman said it will become much easier to build new artificial intelligence models tailored to specific needs.
“Creating a new model will be as simple as making a podcast or writing a blog. In the future, it will be possible to design AI tailored to the needs of every institution and individual on Earth,” he said.
Shumer’s viral AI essay raises alarm
On Tuesday, Hyperwrite CEO Matt Shumer posted a nearly 5,000-word essay on X and on his own site.
Since then, it has drawn 5,500 comments, 34,000 retweets, 101,000 likes, 168,000 bookmarks and 75 million views on X.
Shumer openly admitted he used AI to help write the essay.
Beneath his post on X, Shumer wrote: “Every time someone asks me what’s going on with AI, I give them the safe answer. Because the real one sounds insane. I’m done holding back. I wrote what I wish I could sit down and tell everyone I care about. Send it to someone who needs to read it.”
He begins by comparing the sudden, widespread disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic to the rapid, transformative impact artificial intelligence is starting to have on society.
Just as many were initially unaware of or dismissive about the pandemic’s looming effects, the essay argues, most people today underestimate how quickly AI is advancing and reshaping jobs and daily life.
Shumer’s three main arguments are:
- AI is advancing faster than the public realizes.
- The gap between public perception and reality is huge, and this rapid progress is already affecting professionals in tech and other industries.
- AI will disrupt almost all knowledge work quickly.
- AI is a general-purpose cognitive tool that can replace large portions of office and white-collar jobs simultaneously.
- Early adoption and adaptability are crucial for staying ahead.
- To benefit from or survive this shift, individuals need to engage with AI tools now and develop skills that are harder for AI to replace.
Since sharing his essay, Shumer clarified: “To be very clear, I didn’t write this to scare people. I just believe it’s our duty, especially those of us in AI, to share what we’re seeing so people have some sense of what may be coming.”
Between Shumer’s comments and Suleyman’s, it is clear that a significant share of existing jobs will be automated, reduced or fundamentally transformed within the next few years.
Yet other experts argue that AI is unlikely to cause widespread job loss. Instead, they say technology can expand professional opportunities and raise wages, reshaping roles rather than eliminating them.