The seven states connected to Colorado River share at least one thing in common: all are feeling the pain of trying to cut their water consumption from the iconic Western waterway.
As the current guidelines over how to divide water resources in dry years expires, the states have a deadline of Oct. 1 to come to a new agreement.
This is no small feat. The states have been stuck in a stalemate over water cuts for more than two years, with the Upper Basin states — Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming — at odds with their Lower Basin neighbors — Arizona, California and Nevada.
The urgency for these Western states to finalize a deal is greater than ever amid the record-breaking heatwave and generational drought moving through the Mountain West.
“It’s way too early to be having 80-degree weather and of course, the snowpack is a concern,” Utah Gov. Spencer Cox said last week during his monthly news conference. In Phoenix, Arizona, temperatures have been over 100 degrees for multiple days in March, marking the earliest 100-degree weather in the city’s recorded history.
While the last Colorado River agreement lasted two decades, current negotiations have focused on a potential short-term agreement, based on the grim water forecasts this year.
The root of the issue comes from the states’ original 1922 compact, which was based on unusually wet years, allocating each basin 7.5 million acre-feet of water.
Through the next century, populations exploded across all seven states, and the river’s level withered through over-consumption and long-term drought.
Colorado River flows have shrunk 20% since 2000, and in 2026, its largest basins sit at critical levels. Lake Powell is 25% full; Lake Mead is 34% full.
What’s water usage been lately?
Both basins use less water than is appropriated to them.
Between 2016 and 2020, the Upper Basin’s total consumptive use averaged 4.6 million acre-feet per year, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. Meanwhile in 2024, the Lower Basin used 6.1 million acre-feet.
About 60% of the basins’ water consumption is for agriculture and livestock.
Both Colorado and Utah have battled severe snow droughts and record-warm summers in the past decade. Wyoming fared better, but it can’t avoid the strains on the system.
To the south in New Mexico, low snowpack and prolonged drought have also reduced flow. The state doesn’t sit on the main Colorado River but pulls from a tributary, the San Juan River.
The 1948 compact allocated 51.75% of the Upper Basin’s 7.5 million acre-feet to Colorado, 23% to Utah, 14% to Wyoming and 11.25% to New Mexico.
Meanwhile, California enjoyed the highest apportionment of water of roughly 4.4 million acre-feet. Arizona is entitled to 2.8 million acre-feet and Nevada 0.3 million acre-feet.
But as the Upper Basin experienced “natural” mandatory cuts every dry year, the Lower Basin is subject to mandatory federal cuts. In 2021, the Colorado River system faced a Tier 1 shortage, and escalated to Tier 2 in 2023. It has since reversed back to Tier 1.
In 2025, California decreased its Colorado River water consumption by 14% — the lowest use level since 1949. In that time, the state’s population has quadrupled.
Meanwhile, Arizona decreased its Colorado River consumption 32% in 2024. The cuts led to most farmers losing access to their share of the river’s water supply.
Nevada also faced cuts, but the state has managed to “decouple water demand and population growth,” Las Vegas Fox5 reported.
What does the Upper Basin want?
Upper Basin states are hesitant to commit to guaranteed releases from Blue Mesa, Flaming Gorge, and Navajo dams to meet water demands in the Lower Basin.
Utah representatives say that requiring such releases is unsustainable and delays the problem of over-consumption.
Lower Basin water demands were initially met by the Upper Basin releasing water storage from Lake Powell and Lake Mead, but “that storage is essentially gone,” Utah’s Colorado River commissioner, Gene Shawcroft, told the press in mid-February.
“So reductions have to occur to be on par with what the system will actually provide,” he said.
If Lake Powell, which sits above the Glen Canyon Dam, continues to release more water than it accumulates, it could present serious problems for the West. Turbines in the dam generate power for more than 1 million homes at maximum capacity.
However, if water elevation dips below 3,490 feet, power generation comes to a halt. And if it falls beneath 3,370 feet, it becomes a dead pool, and water cannot pass through the dam.
Amy Haas, the executive director of Colorado River Authority Utah, told the Deseret News that discussions “have pivoted to the possibility of a shorter-term agreement, focusing on the dire hydrology and grim forecasts for this water year.”
She referenced projections showing Lake Powell declining to levels that cease power production and jeopardize infrastructure at Glen Canyon Dam.
“The latest reports show that Upper Basin snowpack peaked at the lowest date on record and at its lowest level since the early 1980s. We are in serious trouble on this river,” she said.
What does the Lower Basin want?
The Lower Basin group argues that all seven states should share the burden of cuts.
The Colorado River may begin in the Upper Basin, but the way Arizona sees it, the federal government wants “to balance a water shortage completely on” the Grand Canyon State’s back, as Gov. Katie Hobbs said.
Historically, the lower basin states are governed by the “junior water rights system,” which has made Arizona bear the largest burden of cuts.
In 2023, the three lower basin states agreed to commit to reducing their water use by about 14% through 2026. Despite this move, Arizona believes a long-term and sustainable solution is necessary.
Hobbs, a Democrat who brokered a deal with Nevada and California and secured the meeting with U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, is now leaning on Arizona’s businesses to bring in more water from the Colorado River.
Hobbs made the case for Arizona to get more water at the recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce “Keep America Moving” summit.
“I firmly believe Arizona has the most to offer in advancing national priorities of AI, national defense, and technological advancement,” the governor said. She also noted the importance of Arizona’s semiconductor industry, which is key in the AI arms race against China, and the aerospace and defense sector, which becomes crucial amid the ongoing conflict in Iran.
Arizona is also responsible for about 25% of the entire lettuce supply nationwide and about 90% of the leafy greens and winter vegetables.
“This administration must step in, show leadership, and help the seven states come to a reasonable and fair agreement and ensure Arizona has the ability to defend our nation, feed our nation and build the high-tech economy of our nation’s future,” Hobbs said.
In a statement to the Deseret News, her office said the primary goal is for all seven basin states to “share the responsibility of water conservation to save the Colorado River.”
“While Upper Basin states have rejected proposals to commit to water use reductions of 2% each year, Arizona remains at the table ready to negotiate a deal.”
“Arizona water users are demanding an equitable plan to manage the Colorado River, and Gov. Hobbs is committed to working with anyone to achieve this outcome and chart a sustainable course forward for the Basin.”
Meanwhile, Utah has clashed Arizona over how the latter has characterized the negotiations.
At the end of February, Shawcroft scheduled a press conference to address the Lower Basin’s reporting about the ongoing negotiations.
“When we see and hear the press indicating that the Upper Basin states were unwilling to do anything, that’s simply not true. ... The Upper Basin did have a plan. We put that plan on the table, and it was not accepted. It wasn’t countered. It just simply wasn’t accepted,” he said.
What’s next?
If the seven basin states haven’t come to an agreement by the end of the summer, the Department of the Interior will impose a plan.
Since odds are low that every basin state will agree to a federally proposed plan, the most likely outcome is years of litigation, which would go straight to the Supreme Court.
As for Utah, Gov. Spencer Cox said last week that the state should anticipate water restrictions through most of the summer.
However, the state “actually had a good water year,” he said. “If you look at precipitation from October to now, we’re really close to normal. It hasn’t been bad.” The problem is snowpack, which is at a record low.
Most of Utah’s reservoir storage comes from snowpack, so state leadership is hoping for a very wet spring and an early monsoon season.
“I would remind people that all of the decisions around cutbacks happen at the local level,” Cox added. “So we’re in constant contact with our water managers all across the state; they know what they need to do.”
