Birth rates in this part of the world are unexpectedly falling

As overall fertility falls globally, Latin American and Caribbean countries are experiencing fertility drops that are unexpected and have been hard to explain so far. Countries that typically had large families in those regions are joining most of the rest of the world in declining fertility.

That news is not actually new. In 2023, Americas Quarterly reported that Brazil “shrank” by close to 5 million people if you count children who were never born due to falling birth rates. It’s a trend that shows that birth rates are heading down, while ramifications head up.

“Brazil is not alone. For half a century, fertility rates around the world have been drifting downwards thanks to a confluence of rising education levels, greater labor force participation by women, strengthened reproductive rights, and wider access to contraception. But in several Latin American and Caribbean countries, this decline has recently accelerated to an unexpected degree that even experts are struggling to explain," the article said.

Births dropped in eight of the countries in those regions within the last decade, including a 34% drop in Uruguay, 32% drop in Argentina, 27% drop in Costa Rica, 24% drop in Mexico, a 21% drop in both Chile and Cuba, a 13% drop in Colombia and a 10% decline in Brazil, based on data from various sources gathered by Americas Quarterly.

Latin American and Caribbean countries typically still have higher-than-average birth rates. But by 2054, they are expected to join most of the rest of the world and have fewer than replacement rate births, according to The United Nations World Fertility Report 2024.

The U.S. is already there, with a fertility rate around 1.6. The replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. The replacement rate keeps population numbers stable long term.

Statista reported that countries with the highest fertility rates so far in 2025 are primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.

That report, released this year, found global fertility was 2.2 births per woman. But that’s “down from around 5 in the 1950s and 3.3 in 1990.” Country by country, fertility below replacement level is “becoming the global norm,” the report said.

Many countries have very low fertility, which leads to both population decline and a much older population. The United Nations reports that 10% of countries now have fertility below 1.4 births per woman and that four of them — China, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Ukraine — have fallen below 1 birth per woman.

The U.N. reports that in countries with low fertility, childbearing begins later in life. Among the bottom lines in its projection: “The global number of births has fluctuated for decades and will soon begin a steady decline.”

Why lower fertility matters

As Newsweek reported last week, “Many developed countries, including the United States, are recording their lowest birth rates in generations — a shift that signals long-term workforce shortages, strains on public services and the dominance of aging populations. A continued decline could mean fewer people of working age supporting a growing number of elderly citizens, undermining the country’s tax base and putting pressure on social welfare systems.”

Marc Novicoff in The Atlantic started with “bad news: The aging populations of rich countries are relying on ever fewer workers to support their economy, dooming those younger generations to a future of higher taxes, higher debt, or later retirement — or all three. Birth rates in middle-income countries are also plummeting, putting their economic development at risk. Practically the only countries set to continue growing are desperately poor.”

He noted that rich countries will resemble Japan, “stagnant and aging. And the rest of the world will become old before it ever got the chance to become rich.”

Then Novicoff wrote that’s “actually the good news, based on estimates that turned out to be far too rosy.”

The American Enterprise Institute’s James Pethokoukis notes one good thing when populations decline: Pressure on natural resources drops. But that hardly holds its own against the downsides, he adds. Economies slow. Fewer people come up with ideas or solutions to solve problems. Living standards stagnate.

Over years reporting on fertility, Deseret News has heard those and many other reasons to fear a continuing decline in fertility, including a housing market where nothing moves, neighborhood schools closing, families that don’t end up with the number of children they want, too few skilled workers and a bad impact on the stock market, among others.

So why is there population growth?

People ask why, if the birth rate is declining, the population is still growing. Our World in Data explains it this way: “The number of births per woman in the reproductive age bracket is only one of two variables that matter here. The second one is the number of women in the reproductive age bracket.”

Thus, few women of reproductive age would produce few children, even with high fertility. However, when an increasing share of women enters the reproductive age bracket, the population can keep growing even if the fertility rate is falling. Demographers call that population momentum. That’s why fertility can fall faster than the number of children will.

But the population will decline as women age out of their reproductive years and there are fewer women entering those years because there were fewer born to grow into that age. It takes a number of decades for that to happen.

Fertility in America

The Congressional Budget Office projected population growth in the U.S. from 2025 to 2055, estimating the fertility rate will fluctuate a little but average 1.6 births per woman, significantly below replacement rate, which is about where the U.S. is now.

Per the report, “The size of the U.S. population and its composition by age and sex have significant implications for the economy and the federal budget. For example, the number of people ages 25 to 54 affects the number of people who are employed, and the number of people age 65 or older affects the number of Social Security and Medicare beneficiaries.”

CBO had separate projections for native-born and foreign-born women, putting the former at 1.56 births per woman and the latter at 1.88. But it notes that the projection is based on policies in place in November 2024, which would not include changes to immigration policy that have occurred since then.

Immigration has an impact on population for many reasons. Population growth or shrinkage can take into account births, deaths and immigration.

The National Center for Health Statistics’ most recent data is from 2024. The center reported that birth rates for those ages 15-24 decreased, those 25-44 increased and they were unchanged for those females younger or older than those groups.

The report showed the birth of 3,622,673 babies in the U.S. last year.

Pew Research Center in 2024 surveyed childless adults under 50 and found that the share who say they don’t expect to have kids rose 10 percentage points between 2018 and 2023, landing at just under half (47%).

“That’s not far off the 50% of those under 50 with no children who said they are very or somewhat likely to have children in the future,” Deseret News reported.

Pew Research associate Rachel Minkin, who co-authored the report, outlined “some different reasons between why adults 50 and older say they didn’t have children and why adults younger than 50 say they’re unlikely to ever have them. The top response for those ages 50 and older is that it just didn’t happen. Those under 50 are more likely to point to not being able to afford having kids, concerns about the state of the world and the environment, or just not wanting to.”

By the year 2100

Pew Research Center in a separate report notes five ways the world population is likely to change by 2100:

• For one thing, it will slow down. Pew said it more than tripled in the last 75 years, but in the next 75 it will barely grow, peaking at 10.3 billion in 2084 and then declining somewhat. By 2100, center researchers predict a world population of 10.2 billion.
• The big three for population now — India, China and the U.S. — are on different paths. India will grow, then decline until in 2100 it ends up about where it is now, with 1.5 billion. China will shrink by about 633 million people. And the U.S. “is expected to grow slowly and steadily to 421 million by 2100.”
• Biggest growth in world population by 2100 will be from the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan and Tanzania.
• The world will get older, as fewer babies are born and people age.
• Africa will still be the youngest region, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean.