- U.S. births are down 10% and deaths up 25% between 2010 and 2023, according to a new CDC report.
- The report shows a steeper increase in death rates in urban counties compared to rural ones.
- U.S. median age increased from 37.2 in 2010 to 39.1 in 2023, in part because of a growing share of older adults.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has released yet another demographic report showing that people in the U.S. are having fewer babies — a trend holding true in much of the world.
According to the latest National Vital Statistics report released Wednesday, the number of U.S. births fell 10% overall between 2010 and 2023, though there were periodic fluctuations. Meanwhile, deaths increased in that time by a total of 25%, including a 19% increase from 2019 to 2020 “which was influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
There were 3,596,017 births in the U.S. in 2023.
The new report particularly focuses on birth and death trends between 2020 and 2023, to capture what happened during and following the pandemic. The authors write that “births and deaths along with net migration (the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants) are essential for understanding changes in the size and structure of populations; these changes affect factors such as Social Security, health care and economic growth.”
Historically, births have outnumbered deaths, leading to population growth. But that trend reversed overall for the period in this report, despite year-to-year fluctuations.
The CDC separately reported that the U.S. general fertility rate, which is the number of births per 1,000 women ages 15-44, fell from 64.1 in 2020 to 54.5 in 2023.
The new report’s data is final, based on all of the birth and death certificates registered in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
Racial and location differences
The report also looks at births and deaths by race, noting a 17% decline in the number of births for the Black population, while the number of deaths rose 36%. Within the white population, the number of births declined 17% between 2010 and 2023, while the number of deaths rose 17%.
Hispanics can be of any race and are not included in the report’s other counts, but were instead counted separately. Per the CDC, the number of births among them was “essentially unchanged,” while the number of deaths rose by 79% in that period.
The report also breaks out births and deaths by setting, looking at urban counties and rural counties. In urban counties, births declined 10%, while deaths rose 27%. In rural counties, births dropped 12% and deaths rose 19% during the time period.
As the Census Bureau reported in 2023, just four states experienced “natural decrease” in 2010. That occurs when there are more deaths than births. In 2023, that was true of half the states.
Driving the numbers
The report said that the upward trend in the number of deaths over time “is due largely to the aging of the U.S. population as the numbers and percentage of older people, who die at higher rates than younger people, have increased from 2010 through 2023.”
Because of that, the median age of the U.S. population increased from 37.2 in 2010 to 39.1 in 2023. And the percentage of people age 65 and older rose from 13% to 17.7%, “a difference equal to almost 19 million people.”
Meanwhile, declining births led to almost 1.7 million fewer people younger than age 20 in 2023, compared to the number in 2010. Those younger than 20 made up 27% of the population in 2010 but the share fell to just under a quarter (24.4%) in 2023.
The report didn’t consider net migration in estimating population, though that can have “significant impact” on population change," the report said, so the birth and death comparison doesn’t give a complete picture of population change. “Additionally, while a death represents a permanent loss of a person, the decline in births may reflect, in part, postponed births,” per the report authors.
The report also notes as a limitation that only reproductive-age females in a population can give birth, but absolutely anyone — young, old, male, female — can die, which can impact population change. The report’s example is an increase in the deaths of older adults, which would have no direct effect on population growth, since it doesn’t impact the number of females of reproductive age.