Utah sees significant shifts in marriage, fertility trends

Utah’s fertility rate has been higher than the national average for more than a half century. But in that time, it has also fallen more than the nation’s, as well. The Beehive State’s total fertility rate is 45.5% lower than 50 years ago, while the nation’s rate has dropped 36%.

That’s according to a new report by the Utah Women and Leadership Project, tracking fertility and marital status trends from 1970 to 2023. The “Utah Women and Fertility” research snapshot also includes “cultural contexts” by decade and some advice for policymakers.

The report said Utah outpaced the nation the most of any state in 1980 when it came to having children, with an average of 1.3 more children than the national average. But around 2010, the gap started to narrow as total fertility rates for the state and nation both began to fall.

There’s now very little difference between Utah and the U.S., which are both below the total replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman to keep the population size stable. The U.S. rate is 1.6 children, while the Utah rate is marginally higher at 1.8 children. The other way that population increases or holds steady is through immigration. And some policymakers are very concerned about potential impacts on the economy, entrepreneurship and overall well-being, among other things.

“I’ve always believed that good decision-making (e.g., government, politics, education, business, nonprofits, religious institutions) should be guided by research,” Susan Madsen, founder and director of the Utah Women and Leadership Project and a professor of organizational leadership at Utah State University, told Deseret News via email.

Madsen said many of the state’s decision makers and residents do not understand what is happening to fertility and marital status trends or why.

“Utah has always been seen as a great place for families, but we are behind on things like family-friendly workplace policies,” she said.

The report was co-written by April Townsend, a research fellow with the project and owner of Townsend Consulting.

Marriage trends

Utah women have historically married and had their first child at younger ages, compared to the average U.S. woman. The report said that from 2010 to 2023, Utah women on average married 3.5 years earlier than the average American woman. Ages for marriage and first child have gone up both nationally and in Utah.

In 1970, Utah women and their national counterparts married on average at age 20 and age 20.8, respectively. They both had their first child around age 21.4. But in 2023, the last year for which complete data is available, Utah women were marrying at an average age of 25.2 and having their first child around age 26.4.

Meanwhile, nationally women on average have their first child around 27.5, but the age of first marriage averages 28.7 showing a growing trend of having a baby outside of marriage.

Marital status has shifted in significant ways, too, per the report. Females 15 and older who had never married made up nearly a quarter of the state’s population in 1970 and by 2023 that share rose to 28.8%. Nationally, never-married women made up nearly a third of the U.S. population, at 31.6%.

In 2023, a larger share of Utah women have been married (54.8%), compared to nationally (46.5%). That’s been the trend historically, too.

But Utah marriage rates have declined and divorce rates have more than tripled since 1970. The report said that “largely followed national trends: Divorce percentages climbed between 1970 (3.8%) and 2010 (10.1%), then over the next decade they dipped slightly to 9.8%, only to return to 10.1% in 2023.”

Utah children are very likely to live in two-parent households. In 2023, 6.5% of Utah families with minor children were headed by a woman without a spouse present. That rate has never been higher than 8.1%, which happened in 1990.

A changing world for women

The researchers found that in the 1970s, “women experienced the social impact of no-fault divorce laws, laws prohibiting discrimination against pregnant women, the availability of oral contraceptives, an increase of women on college campuses in both undergraduate and graduate programs, and a significant increase of women in the workforce.”

In the 1980s, the first millennials were born into a “much different social landscape than previous generations had, with more varied family dynamics.” Those changes included more moms in the workforce and older moms, too.

Trends in the 1990s included an increase in the number of women who graduated from college and a wage gap between men and women that fell nearly 10%. In 1990, women earned 71.9 cents to every dollar men earned.

The 1990s also ushered in the Family and Medical Leave Act, more two-income households and the rise of “latchkey kids,” per the report.

In the 2000s, the share of families with minor children headed by women began to decline. The state’s population was becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, slightly over 3 in 10 working women had at least a bachelor’s degree and the gender wage gap nationally decreased to the point that women earned 76.9 cents for every dollar that men earned.

It was also the decade of the Great Recession, which the report noted may have sped up total fertility declines as people grappled with financial concerns. Among other things, per capita student debt was beginning to climb; it rose 285% between 2003 and 2015.

In 2010, the number of divorced women peaked in the 50 years examined at just over 1 in 10. Fewer than 1 in 12 households with kids were headed solely by women. In the U.S., births to teenagers were falling, but the share of babies born to unmarried mothers nationally rose to more than 4 in 10 in 2011.

By 2016, 41.6% of women in Utah’s workforce had a bachelor’s degree and women were earning 81.2 cents for every dollar a man earned. But despite those gains, families faced more housing debt as home prices began to climb. That’s one factor the report suggests dampens fertility because couples may delay first births until they feel they can afford it.

Forging the future

Madsen noted that if women are to bear and raise children in Utah, changes in marriage, fertility and other family-focused trends must be well-documented so the right policies and family supports can be put in place for parents who need to work. It’s a matter of assessing which policies help families succeed both in their work and family lives, such as child care policies, workplace flexibility and remote work, for example, she said.

“I worry about our young people who don’t see a way forward to afford to have children. Yes, we are still higher than many other states, but the changes in marriage and fertility rates are fairly drastic even from 2021 to 2023, in my opinion. That really was surprising to me,“ she said, acknowledging that she knew from other research that Utah was ”trending toward the nation.“

The report suggests that financial factors like the cost of child care and housing help shape decisions to start a family. And “current trends reflect that young people are less likely to live near extended family and as a result lack support systems of those who could help with caregiving responsibilities.”

The report concludes that “community leaders will need to carefully consider how to balance resources among various population needs. Utah policymakers will need to support women and families so they are empowered to make childbearing choices that are right for them.”