Why U.S. fertility rate continues downward slide

The U.S. fertility rate has fallen once again — and while the decrease is a very modest 1% for 2025 compared to 2024, it marks the lowest level for the country. And it’s also the continuation of a years-long slide.

That’s according to provisional birth data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics. The report contains all birth records received and processed by the center for 2025 by Feb. 3, 2026. Final numbers lag by several months.

The general fertility rate is the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age. And it dropped from 53.8 in 2024 to 53.1 in 2025.

The report said 3,606,400 babies were born in 2025 in the U.S. “The number of births declined by an average 2% per year from 2015 through 2020 and has generally fluctuated since then,” the report said.

The provisional general fertility rate for the U.S. in 2025 was 53.1 births per 1,000 females in what’s considered prime childbearing years, ages 15 to 44.

The decline has been driven in part by the drop in teen pregnancies, which fell 7% compared to 2024 and marks a record low for that group. The provisional fertility rate for teenagers last year was 11.7 births per 1,000 females ages 15 to 19. The report noted that the teen birth rate has dropped 72% since 2007 and by 81% since its most recent peak in 1991.

What’s driving fertility decline?

The report from the CDC doesn’t explain why the numbers are dropping. But demographers, economists and others have some ideas.

One factor is obviously the decrease in teen births. And most people consider that a good thing. Effective birth control is another factor.

But experts note that women are not necessarily choosing not to have children. Many are simply delaying having children. Martha Bailey, a University of California, Los Angeles economist, told The New York Times that dips in fertility can turn around. She pointed to a cohort of women in the 1970s who “weren’t opting out of motherhood, they were delaying it.” By the time they reached their mid-40s, they had an average of 1.9 children.

But the Times notes one significant difference between the 1970s and today. “For the first time, almost half of the country’s 30-year-old women are childless. In 1976, it was just 18%.”

Starting a family late naturally limits the number of children a woman will have.

Another factor that has been cited often to explain why fewer are opting to have children is the high cost of living — especially the cost of basics like housing. Others suggest inadequate access to affordable and high quality child care, work inflexibility and other issues play a role. It has also been suggested that a cultural shift places less value on having children.

“The largest group is women who said they haven’t found the appropriate partner and don’t want to have children alone,” Dr. Sigal Klipstein, a specialist in reproductive endocrinology and infertility at InVia Fertility Specialists in Chicago, told CNN. “It’s very much that they want children, but that they want them either in the context of a family or in a context of financial security, and they’re willing to wait in the hopes that they not need to compromise.”

What to expect when fewer are expecting

Three factors determine population: births, deaths and immigration. Immigration is clearly going down. The U.S. population is still growing, “but slowly, dragged down by a precipitous drop in immigration, and the lower fertility rate. Some European countries have tipped into outright decline,” per the Times.

Some countries, like South Korea, are seeing their lowest fertility rate. Even typically high-fertility areas like Latin America and the Caribbean are seeing fertility rates drop, as Deseret News earlier reported. Even China’s trying to boost fertility. Global efforts to offer incentives have not made a huge difference to the numbers.

In April 2025, as the fertility rate in the U.S. continued to sink below the replacement rate of 2.1, politicians including the president and vice president were calling for baby-boosting suggestions, per Deseret News. Donald Trump had referred to himself as the “fertilization president” and prior to the election, J.D. Vance had floated the idea of a $5,000 per child tax credit.

As Deseret News reported in 2023, “Demographic experts say reports on fertility rates are not just an interesting look at numbers. Fertility is a roadmap to aspects of the future that have great bearing on most people’s lives in one way or another, though they may not recognize it.”

There are concrete issues if a population shrinks too much, as Deseret News has reported. It’s not good for the economy, entrepreneurship lags, education takes a hit and the social safety net turns upside down, with a large number of people relying on a much smaller number to provide support. Having a robust younger generation coming up behind you can determine if you can cash out when you’re ready to sell your house.

C-sections and preterm births

The CDC report also offers provisional data on cesarean delivery and preterm births.

In 2025, C-section delivery rose ever so slightly from 32.4% in 2024 to 32.5% in 2025. The rate had dropped for nearly a decade, but “has increased almost every year from 2020 to 2025. The 2025 number is the highest since 2013.

Cesarean delivery for a single child who reached the full term of at least 37 weeks that was positioned head first — three factors that are considered a healthy norm — increased from 26.6% in 2024 to 26.9% in 2025.

The center reported that just over 1 in 10 babies (10.41%) were born preterm, which refers to any birth before 37 completed gestation.

Early preterm is gestation less than 34 completed weeks. And that rate in 2025 was 2.69%. Late preterm births didn’t change. It has held steady since 2021 at 7.67%.