Update: The House of Representatives on Thursday passed its resolution on the impeachment inquiry, 232-196. Two Democrats and 194 Republicans voted against it.
WASHINGTON — The impeachment inquiry is set to go public Thursday with a vote on the House floor. Some experts say it’s a shrewd but fraught maneuver in a partisan contest for public support.
The House is expected to pass a resolution that will eventually move the drama from behind closed doors to the screens and earbuds of the voting public. That could move the focus off motives and procedures and on to the merits of the allegations against President Donald Trump, which could have ramifications beyond the halls of Congress.
“If the Democrats have a clean process and can make a very clean case, there is a chance they will score some political points out of this that will help themselves in the 2020 election,” said independent political analyst Scott Rasmussen, former owner of the Rasmussen poll. “But, on the other hand, if the Democrats don’t make that case, it will work against them.”
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who had been resisting an impeachment inquiry until last month, has apparently made the calculation that taking the process public will work in her party’s favor, according to pundits analyzing the implications of Thursday’s vote.
During a gathering of opinion columnists this week, as described by David Leonhardt of the New York Times, the California Democrat pointed to a picture of Abraham Lincoln and quoted the Republican president: “Public sentiment is everything. With it, you can accomplish almost anything. Without it, you can accomplish virtually nothing.”
Leonhardt predicted that if Democrats can turn “even a small share” of Trump supporters against the president, his tenure could end with one term after November 2020. That modest shift could also eat into support for congressional Republicans.
“The battle for public sentiment explains why Pelosi and other House Democrats changed course yesterday and announced that they would hold a vote on Thursday to ‘affirm’ their impeachment inquiry,” he wrote.
Shifting sentiment
The impeachment inquiry is centered around a whistleblower complaint about a July 25 phone conversation between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. An official transcript of the call shows Trump asking for a “favor” — to investigate political rival Joe Biden and his family.
The inquiry asks whether that request and other actions by the administration to push Ukraine to investigate the former vice president amounted to a quid pro quo for important military aid for Ukraine, which Democrats say would provide grounds for impeachment.
Calls for impeachment over other matters began shortly after Trump took office, but picked up steam after the release of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and allegations that Trump tried to obstruct Mueller’s probe.
But an average of public opinion polls by the data analysis website FiveThirtyEight shows support for the impeachment inquiry or removing the president from office languished in the high 30% to low 40% range since Democrats took control of the House in January. During that time, Pelosi resisted pressure from her caucus to launch an impeachment inquiry.
But public sentiment changed after the whistleblower complaint surfaced in September and Pelosi announced the House would launch an impeachment inquiry. Fifty-one percent of Americans now support the inquiry, as testimony supporting the quid pro quo allegation has leaked from the closed door depositions of witnesses familiar with the administration’s policy toward Ukraine.
Support for impeachment or removing the president from office has grown along a similar gradual trajectory, eclipsing opposition to impeachment this month. As of Wednesday, 47.6% support impeachment while 43.4% are against it, according to FiveThirtyEight.
“So what we’ve seen in the last month is not a zero-to-60, screeching increase in support for impeachment,” said Rasmussen, who sold the company behind the pro-GOP Rasmussen poll in 2013 and now works closely with Ballotpedia. He noted that what hasn’t changed is the partisan divide on impeachment — 75% of Republicans are against it and 84% of Democrats support it.
But it wasn’t until last week that Republicans shifted their opposition into high gear, after the president urged them to “get tougher.” A group of House Republicans responded by storming into the closed-door hearings, demanding access to the deposition transcripts.
That was followed by Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., introducing a Senate resolution condemning the House’s handling of the inquiry, arguing for a vote and a public process where the president can defend himself. The White House refused to cooperate, calling the inquiry illegitimate and a sham.
Opinions vary on whether the resolution unveiled this week was in response to Republican complaints as it largely addresses them. Democrats had argued neither the Constitution nor House rules required a vote — a federal judge supported that position Friday — and that transcripts would be public along with hearings after the closed-door investigation was complete. But Republicans had also threatened to cause more disturbances until their demands were met.
Even after the House released the resolution, Republican opposition has remained focused on process, saying the move validates their complaints and the impeachment inquiry was illegitimate and remains tainted.
But some observers say making the transcripts and hearings public could force Republicans to start addressing the allegations that Trump abused his office in pressuring a foreign country to investigate a political rival.
Turning public attention to the president and away from Democrats trying to impeach him depends on how clear and consistent Democrats are in their messaging throughout the public hearings and the House vote, experts said.
Asked how these hearings would differ from others accusing the president of wrongdoing that didn’t move public opinion, Pelosi told the opinion writers the message would focus on “simple and repetitive clarity about the Constitution of the United States,” Leonhardt wrote.
If Democrats can stay true to that message, it will likely lead to impeachment by the House, but Rasmussen doesn’t see a “plausible scenario” where the Republican-controlled Senate removes Trump from office.
“With 75% of Republicans against impeachment, and that number will probably go up, a (Republican) senator voting against the president is guaranteed not be reelected if they are running next year,” he said.
About 30 House Democrats who represent districts that Trump won in 2016 and played a key role in turning control of the House to the Democrats in 2018, such as Utah’s Ben McAdams, are also at risk if the public hearings don’t increase public sentiment against Trump.
“At some point, voters are going to say, ‘Hey, we’ve heard this, we don’t like the way President Trump behaves but this is not enough to impeach him. Let’s get back to worrying about the economy and healthcare,’” Rasmussen said.
As for Trump getting reelected, he begins his campaign with a strong base of support and a huge war chest of cash and would only need to capture a portion of the independent voters who view the election as choosing “the lesser of two evils,” Rasmussen said.
One consequence Rasmussen is certain of: “It sets the stage for a very toxic election cycle,” he said. “The political dialogue will be so poisoned that nothing else will get done.”