SALT LAKE CITY — Battling the coronavirus has been a uniting issue during one of the most partisan periods in the nation’s history. But emerging political forces show cracks appearing in that unified front that could threaten the recovery of both public health and the economy.
Evidence of the underlying partisan divide surfaced in the past week with sporadic protests against government-imposed lockdowns of local commerce erupting in at least 20 states, including Utah. But a more telling sign that efforts are afoot to make economic recovery a politically divisive issue is the coordinated backing of the protests by state and national groups.
“This clearly has a great deal to do with the economic hardship. How could it not? This is the worst hardship disaster we’ve had since the Great Depression,” Sidney Milkis, a political science professor at the University of Virginia who studies social movements in politics, said of the motivation for the protests. “But the protests, I think, go beyond economic necessity.”
Conservative groups and gun-rights advocates have been identified in press reports and by academics who study social movements as backers of protests that resemble “astroturfing” — political events that appear as spontaneous uprisings but are organized by outside and sometimes unknown interest groups. But Milkis says his research on past movements would also validate claims that some rallies are organized by genuine grassroots movements of individuals that champion individual freedom from government mandates. Both appear to be at play here.
An election in November is also factoring into the demonstrations that have been relatively small, but have attracted both local and national news coverage. Milkis anticipates that both conservative and progressive interest groups will leverage the crisis to rally their bases on issues such as health care, immigration, income equality, gun rights, abortion, education and working conditions for food service and others on the front lines of the disease outbreak.
“Just as there was during the Great Depression, agitation on the left and the right, I think we could expect that to happen with this crisis, particularly if it drags out over several months,” Milkis said.
Shoring up your most loyal supporters is a common approach that voters should be aware of as they sort out fact from fiction during an election year, said Scott Rasmussen, a political analyst who does polling for the Deseret News.
“Every political activist organization, right and left, lives by the theory that every crisis is an opportunity to boost your membership and your base,” he said. “But, I think we overestimate the impact of these groups.”
“A lot of what’s happening now is these groups are jockeying for position,” Rasmussen said.
‘Partisanship reinforced’
Rasmussen notes that polls show large majorities of Americans support stay-at-home orders. A Pew Research Center survey released Thursday found 66% are most concerned that restrictions on public activity will be lifted too soon.
But a demographic breakdown of the findings showed a 30 point partisan gap on concern over pandemic restrictions with 81% of Democrats most concerned compared with 51% of those who identified as Republicans.
A recent study out of Syracuse University showed political affiliation was the most consistent predictor of behavior, attitudes and preferences toward government policies and recommendations related to stopping the spread of COVID-19.
“So people are saying their willingness to change their handwashing and other kinds of health-related behaviors is shaped more by whether or not they’re a strong Republican or strong Democrat than it is by the infection rate in their local communities,” said Edward Walker, a UCLA sociologist who studies social movements and political involvement of corporations. “The story of this moment is really not of partisanship being transcended but of partisanship being reinforced in quite striking ways.”
Leaders of national conservative groups are tapping into those partisan loyalties to foment public support for opening up the economy sooner rather than later, according to news accounts of the recent protests.
“There’s a massive movement on the right now, growing exponentially. In the next two weeks, you’ll see protests in the streets of conservatives; you’ll see a big pushback against the lockdown in some states. People are at the boiling point,” Stephen Moore, a fellow on leave with the Heritage Foundation and co-founder of the conservative Club for Growth, told The Washington Post days before the protests began.
Moore is heading up a group of conservative leaders, including Jenny Beth Martin, co-founder of the Tea Party Patriots; Adam Brandon, president of FreedomWorks, and Lisa Nelson, chief executive of the American Legislative Exchange Council, lobbying White House officials to “push back against health professionals who have urged more caution,” the Post reported.
Walker, Milkis and others note gun rights groups are also backing movements to reopen economies in Pennsylvania, Virginia and other states. Walker said in many cases it’s obvious gun rights groups are among the groups backing the demonstrations (the “reopenpa.com” domain redirects users to the Pennsylvania Firearms Association website) and their concerns stem from local government determining whether guns shops are essential businesses to stay open in an economic lockdown.
Politico reported that rally organizers in Oklahoma followed a one-page #ReOpenAmerica Rally Planning Guide put together by FreedomWorks, “offering tips for activists across the nation: Write a simple message on a homemade sign like “Let Me Feed My Family,” bring pink slips and eviction notices, invite health care workers, invite religious leaders.”
Eric Moutsos insists his Utah Business Revival had no political agenda when it organized “a picnic” Saturday at Salt Lake City Hall attended by hundreds who said they ate food purchased from local establishments.
“I believe I was inspired,” says the St. George resident, who counts among his friends Ammon Bundy, a hero among anti-government activists for his armed confrontations with federal land managers. Bundy is also a leading protester against Idaho’s stay-at-home order.
Moutsos, who says he didn’t vote for Donald Trump in 2016 but will in November, explains he wants the movement to represent a broad swath of Utahns who agree government restrictions to contain the virus violate constitutional protections to assemble and are damaging the economy.
“I’m trying to get all kinds of people at the same time to get united to get our businesses to open immediately, not in steps, not in phases,” he said.
Long, slow process
But, like the majority of Americans, government leaders and health care experts say reopening the economy too soon risks another surge in COVID-19 infections that could further cripple local economies. Recent research by Federal Reserve economists comparing the coronavirus outbreak to the 1918 influenza pandemic backed up those concerns. They found cities that acted soon and aggressively to contain the outbreak experienced a stronger economic rebound than those that didn’t.
But pressure is mounting on local leaders to begin loosening economic restrictions that have wiped out a decade of employment growth in four weeks.
“Obviously, the sooner we get the economy going and back up, the better it’s going to be for conservatives and Republicans in this election year,” veteran tea-party organizer Richard Viguerie told the Post. The strong economy was expected to help President Donald Trump through the election season as he seeks a second term. But the coronavirus changed that equation.
The day after he announced he would leave it up to state governors to reopen their economies, Trump took to Twitter on Friday in support of those calling on several states with Democratic governors to “LIBERATE.”
Whether the recent demonstrations will have any impact come November will depend on what decisions mayors, governors and the president make in balancing the public safety and economic health of their communities, experts say.
Coinciding with the protests this past week, some governors are announcing timelines of when various businesses and public places will be open. Florida and South Carolina reopened beaches, Utah unlocked its state parks and Texas and Indiana unveiled plans to allow some retail activity to resume. Social distancing will stay in place in most cases.
Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia announced at a news conference Monday steps to reopen his state’s economy beginning Friday, noting that gyms and fitness centers, as well as hair and nail care salons, will be among the businesses allowed to open.
Milkis says if there aren’t some signs of easing, the sporadic protests could grow into a tea party-like movement “especially when you’ve got a president who not only sees himself as president, but as the head of a movement” that has long felt slighted by those in power.
He said that politicians who dismiss the recent demonstrations as irresponsible distractions risk stoking those anti-government, anti-establishment sentiments.
“You could criticize these demonstrations as violating some very important public safety measures supported by Democrats and Republicans. Fair enough,” Milkis said. “But to just be dismissive I think is both risky politically and also wrong because people are really suffering out there.”
Rasmussen said the protests — while sporadic and relatively small — should also serve as an early signal of who makes the final call on when stores, restaurants, churches, stadiums and parks will be back in business.
“For all the talk about who should decide — governors or presidents or health officials — it’s individual Americans who will decide when this lockout ends and we begin to return to normal,” he said. “When the government restrictions fade away, restaurant owners will have to convince people it’s safe to come in. ... This is going to be a long, slow process.”