“Be careful what you wish for.” — Anonymous
In our system’s binary election system, 2016 and 2018 voters were almost evenly divided between the left and right. Polling shows that continues to be the case.
Each side has deeply held and mostly nonnegotiable positions on hot-button issues like abortion, gun control, climate change, significant expansion of federal social programs, identity politics, federal overreach, military spending and political correctness. As each side has doubled down and refused to compromise to move forward, the Fates have granted each side its electoral wishes — but only in proportion to its percentage of the electorate; each side gets to hold one end of the baton, but not fully wield it.
In Trump, the right got their tough guy to cut back the federal government, push back on China, nominate conservative judges, take on political correctness, and demonize Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren and the progressives.
The left took back the House in 2018, depriving the Republicans of the ability to pass purely Republican legislation and giving Messrs. Nadler and Schiff unlimited airtime to investigate, embarrass, vilify and probably impeach Mr. Trump.
In control of the White House and the Senate, Republicans have installed their judges. The president has done his thing with tariffs and executive orders. But Republicans can’t (and don’t seem to want to) pass much legislation, although they can certainly blunt Democratic initiatives.
Every day is a heyday for the Democratic House majority as they highlight Trump’s alleged high crimes and misdemeanors and showcase his spectacularly dysfunctional White House to the rabid national media and their daytime audiences. Unsurprisingly, all of this has provoked our president to tweet hundreds of digital tantrums.
Apparently, the stunning Trump victory in 2016 and the sweeping Democratic return in 2018 will fulfill the hopes of neither victor. Instead, our collective intransigence has condemned us to watch two clumsy political monsters grapple in a battle dance with each trying to inflict hurtful, even fatal wounds on the other. Despite their spewing anger, neither is strong enough to prevail. This appears to be our fate: perfect stasis — a venomous equilibrium of mutual impotence. If this proves correct, the future will play out something like this.
After all the theatrics they can employ to vilify and embarrass Trump and his Republican allies, the Democratic House majority will, on a purely partisan vote, impeach President Trump.
The Senate, gathering in all possible pomp and circumstance, will try Trump on the House’s impeachment charges. Republicans will harass and seek to embarrass Joe and Hunter Biden, James Comey, the FBI, Robert Mueller and other enemies of the Trump reign. The trial will strand in Washington half of the viable Democratic presidential hopefuls during their most vital campaign time and divert the media’s Cyclopean attention from the crucial Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.
After escaping conviction in the Senate by a mile, Trump will claim complete exoneration and stoke his hatred for Pelosi, Schumer and company to white-hot. He will take vengeance on any Republican who dares step out of line with his dictator’s notion of loyalty.
Nonetheless, Trump may win what will be an unimaginably ugly election in 2020. Hyper-partisanship will prevail, and divided government will continue with the Republicans probably maintaining control of the Senate and the Democrats still in charge of the House.
The ineptness and dysfunction surrounding Trump will intensify. Resignations, firings and unfilled positions will increase to critical levels. Poorly conceived policy and herky-jerky actions will be the rule because of Trump’s distrust of professional staff work and his fear of the “deep state.”
The public, especially the young, are leaving or avoiding the Republican Party in droves and will move our politics to the left for a generation or more.
Trumpian morals will bring confidence in public officials to historic lows. Yet, feeling exempt from the threat of subsequent impeachment, Trump will be bold in his venal way to blur any line, help any friend, punish any dissenter, and ruin any enemy.
We can only hope and pray — literally — that voters realize that in picking our leaders, policy is very important, but nothing — nothing — can replace character. Good presidents would never have brought us to this place. Great ones like Washington and Lincoln can only weep.
Greg Bell is the former lieutenant governor of Utah and the current president and CEO of the Utah Hospital Association.