Utah politics is much like the recent weather — hard to predict and often erratic. Local meteorologists blame anything chaotic on the “lake affect.” We blame anything weird in Utah politics on “Sen. Todd Weiler’s incessant tweets” — they’re clever and cryptic enough to ascribe any meaning to them. But even the Weiler tweets can’t explain the referendum to repeal the tax reform passed in December. For those insights you must read the following forecast on this political storm front.
Most political observers dismissed the volunteer-staffed referendum requiring at least 130,000 signatures (accounting for disqualifications) as certain to fail. Then last week some large grocery chains announced their backing of the effort, allowing signature-gathering on their premises. Then the state PTA encouraged its thousands of members to gather signatures. Could what was once a fantasy become a reality this coming week? Will the effort impact the legislative session?
Pignanelli: “If you’re explaining, you’re losing.” — Ronald Reagan
An often used comic routine is two speakers using different languages humorously trying to communicate with increasing elevation of their voices and total miscomprehension as the result. Similar emotions and intensity describe the misunderstanding between state officials and referendum supporters regarding tax reform legislation. The resulting passion and frustration is fueling the massive volunteer effort to gather signatures. Many direct democracy experts doubt the success of the referendum effort. But others believe recent institutional support could carry them across the finish line. Either way — it will be close.
Sponsors and signatories of the referendum will maintain feelings long after the deadline, to be expressed during the legislative session. Further tax reform deliberations are chilled for a year, if not longer.
Should the referendum be certified, lawmakers must dramatically revise budget allocations, with deep cuts in programs funded by sales tax revenue.
Either way, shouting in different languages does not end for some time.
Webb: I still think the referendum storm front will dwindle and die — and that will be good for the state, good for taxpayers, and especially good for low-income people. Don’t kid yourself. If you sign a repeal petition you’re voting to raise your taxes — by a whopping $160 million. You’re voting to hurt low-income people. You’re voting to retain a dysfunctional tax system. You’re voting for long-term challenges to fund critical state services like Medicaid, law enforcement, prisons and social services.
I am hopeful the referendum will not stampede legislators into retreating on tax reform. The hard part is done. Voters will benefit. Give it some time to work.
Many lawmakers and their staff spent hundreds of hours during the summer and fall wrestling with tax reform, including over 60 hours of public hearings and discussions. Why is their message not resonating with many Utahns?
Pignanelli: Referendum supporters have the easy message — “no new taxes on gasoline and food!” Defenders of tax reform use words like “structural budget readjustments,” “revenue silos” and “changing economic patterns,” to explain their position. These unappealing descriptions are a monstrous burden for even the most articulate.
Legislators endured a grueling process to promote public participation in tax reform, eventually garnering support of businesses and community organizations. But without a crisis, many Utahns do not understand an additional burden at the grocery checkout or gas pump despite an income tax reduction. Although Utah is a well-managed state, a distrust of authority remains.
Webb: Tax reform is complicated. Some taxes go up, some go down. Opponents can focus exclusively on the taxes going up, especially the food tax and fuel tax, and generate lots of angst. Without a million-dollar advertising budget, it’s difficult to win the messaging game on tax reform, even though the result is a net positive for citizens. Personally, I like the tax reform package because I prefer a tax cut to a tax increase. Especially when, along with a hefty tax cut, we get a modern, better-balanced tax system suited to our high-tech, services economy.
The grassroots momentum behind the referendum cannot be ignored. How will this play out in the upcoming elections?
Pignanelli: Many of the referendum activists will attend precinct caucuses in March, creating angst for incumbents with interparty challenges. While campaigning, candidates will encounter questions on tax reform, altering the flavor of conventions and primaries.
Webb: Clearly, many candidates, including some naïve gubernatorial candidates, will campaign against tax reform. I hope voters will recognize what they’re really saying: “Vote for me because I promise to raise your taxes. I promise to reduce benefits for low-income people. I promise to reinstate a dysfunctional tax system. Vote for me because I’m cynically grandstanding even though I know it’s not good for the state.”
Candidates are supposed to be campaigning on how they will courageously take Utah to the next level. Instead they’re promising to reverse progress and take Utah back to a bad tax system.
Republican LaVarr Webb is a political consultant and lobbyist. Email: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is a Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. Email: frankp@xmission.com.