For all who feel certain about how Election 2020 will be resolved, I highly recommend a visit to Real Clear Politics (RCP). That invaluable resource exhibits a rare but welcome acknowledgement of uncertainty.
On Election Day 2016, at a time when just about every pundit predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton, RCP rated 14 states with 171 electoral votes as toss-ups. As it turned out, of course, Donald Trump won most of those toss-ups to pull off a stunning upset.
This year, RCP places an even larger number of electoral votes in the toss-up category — 197. So, caution should be exercised when making any projections.
But there are hints in the RCP ratings — and in all the data before us — that Donald Trump is in a weaker position today than he was four years ago. Four years ago, he trailed by three points in the national polling average. This year, he’s down seven.
In practical terms, that’s a huge difference. It is possible to win the Electoral College if you’re down just two or three points nationally. It is not possible to pull off an Electoral College upset if you’re down seven. That reality is reflected in the fact that RCP currently rates states with just 125 electoral votes leaning in the president’s direction. That’s down from 164 the last time around.
The bottom line is that the president would have to win 74% of the toss-ups to pull off a miraculous comeback this year. So, while acknowledging the uncertainty, it seems quite likely that former Vice President Joe Biden will win the presidential election this year.
That assessment is bolstered by my own Election 2020 opinion polls. Over the past month, my national polling for JustTheNews.com has shown Biden holding steady at around 51% with Trump trailing by seven or eight points.
My battleground state polling for PoliticalIQ.com has consistently shown the president running a few points behind where he needs to be. In the three midwestern states that put the president over the top in 2016, my final polls show Biden leading by seven in Michigan, six in Wisconsin and six in Pennsylvania. In Florida and North Carolina, a pair of must-win states for Trump, my numbers show Biden up by four points and one point, respectively.
Possibly the most troubling numbers for the president in my polls come from two states where he’s ahead — Texas and Montana. He leads by just four points in each of these previously solid Republican states. On top of that, the candidates are tied in Iowa, a state Trump won by nearly 10 points in 2016.
As Real Clear Politics reminds us, nothing is guaranteed by these results. It is possible that many of these individual states could end up in either the Republican or the Democratic column. That’s particularly true of North Carolina, Iowa and Florida. But it’s definitely good news for the Democrats that Biden has bigger leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin than Trump enjoys in Texas and Montana.
No matter how you look at the data, the odds are heavily in favor of Joe Biden being elected president.
Scott Rasmussen is an American political analyst and digital media entrepreneur. He is the author of “The Sun is Still Rising: Politics Has Failed But America Will Not.”