In 2004, the third largest earthquake ever recorded struck near Indonesia. But it was a resulting tsunami that was far more deadly — killing over 225,000. The pandemic of 2020 is the proverbial earthquake preceding the devastating tsunami some call the “Great Suppression.” We are standing on the shore, watching the tide recede, hoping we have high enough ground to survive this economic tsunami.
Why the Great Suppression? Whether voluntarily or mandated by government, the economy of the world has been restricted in an effort to slow COVID-19. Social distancing policies, forced closures and shelter-in-place orders have suppressed economic and social activity throughout the world. Our physical world is smaller than ever and we live primarily through digital platforms — and it is decidedly unsatisfying. We are limited in our rights. Our right to assemble is denied. Our right to worship abrogated. Our right to free movement restricted. Our children’s guarantee of a public education is now a public education enjoyed only from a private location. Economic, civic and social engagement has been restrained, limited, controlled and extinguished. Hence, the Great Suppression is upon us. So where do we go from here?
First, the Great Suppression, while justified, must be a temporary, one-time event. As soon as safely possible, we must demand a return of our economic, social and civil liberties and we should jealously guard against such future suppressions. What will we do if there is a second wave or if a hot spot of infections flares up again or a wholly new global crisis arises. Must we go through this again? No. We should be armed with more data, testing, antibody testing, medical supplies, medical capacity, strategies, a much deeper understanding of COVID-19 or its successor and a faster response plan. With more data and preparation our health experts can tailor a more surgical response rather than the current one-size-hurts-all methodology.
Second, we have an opportunity to harness new competencies developed in this crisis. Make no mistake, the loss of 20 million jobs or more is an undeniable wave of devastation — in more than just economic terms. How can we bounce back? Our recovery from the Great Depression holds some lessons. Beginning in 1929 until World War II, the national unemployment rate was 15-25% — in spite of FDR’s New Deal policies. However, following the war, the unemployment rate stayed at or below 6.6% for approximately 20 years, due to a rejection of a government regimented economy and an expanded workforce of women and returning soldiers possessing new skills.
The newfound skills of remote (i.e. online) productivity by workers and students should become a mainstream skill set for effectively working and learning. This could expand job possibilities, remove distance-based obstacles and lessen infrastructure needs to support both workplaces and schools via flex schedules, remote work and appropriate metrics. Telemedicine is a powerful tool that insurance companies previously restricted, but now allow. Telemedicine improves safety and convenience. It keeps sick patients out of doctor’s waiting rooms while saving money for patients and improving doctor utilization rates. It will be incumbent on us to identify and empower new techniques, competencies and business models.
In sum, our response to the economic tsunami of the Great Suppression must demonstrate our determination to unleash our economy and safeguard civil liberties. We must demand our leaders rely first upon less restrictive tools moving forward. Additionally, we must leverage the new capabilities we have developed. If we can do this, we will balance the trifecta of protecting public health, protecting the high ground of liberty, while hastening our recovery in a responsible manner.
Utah Rep. Brady Brammer is a local attorney and represents Utah’s House District 27.