After 20 years, 2,312 military deaths and an estimated 40,000 civilian deaths, the time to withdraw all but a residual force of soldiers in Afghanistan has come.
Remove politics completely from the argument and that is the logical conclusion. It was President Trump’s conclusion before he left office, and now President Biden has made a similar decision, setting the deadline of Sept. 11. We once were skeptical of the idea of leaving without total victory, but conversations with experts on the matter, and the fact that both a Republican and Democratic president agree on a withdrawal, have persuaded us differently.
But the decision to withdraw (only 2,500 soldiers are in the country now, compared with 98,000 in 2011) will have value only if the United States maintains a presence in the region and an intelligence capability that could rapidly strike targets to defend U.S. interests. Armed forces could be repositioned in Tajikistan, Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan to facilitate this.
The lives lost in Afghanistan must not have been in vain. While the nation may continue to struggle for its freedom, belligerent forces must understand that any threats they intend to pose against the United States would be met with a quick and powerful response.
Recent history ought to send a cautionary warning to the current administration. President Barack Obama withdrew troops from Iraq, and that led to the rise of IS, a terrorist group that took advantage of a power vacuum to gain power and influence, at one time controlling about 40% of Iraq. That also led to years of fighting, culminating in 2019 with the liberation of all ISIS-controlled territory.
President Biden was vice president when the withdrawal from Iraq took place. He ought to have the experience now to avoid repeating the mistakes that led to those problems.
Any withdrawal under conditions short of total and complete victory is fraught with potential problems. In a meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee this week, CIA Director William J. Burns acknowledged that IS or al-Qaida might try to take advantage of the withdrawal to build strength or to plot attacks against the United States or U.S. interests. Those groups have not abandoned their hatred against the U.S.
Burns said after withdrawal, “the U.S. government’s ability to collect and act on threats will diminish, that’s simply a fact,” according to a Washington Post account. “But we will work very hard at CIA and with all of our partners to try to provide the kind of strategic warning to others in the U.S. government that enables them and us to address that threat if it starts to materialize.”
That may be small comfort to Americans, but it represents a clear-eyed view of the situation. The truth, however, is that total victory is not possible without much more bloodshed and expense. And a continued, indefinite presence in Afghanistan would not bring the United States much benefit beyond what it already has achieved.
On the one hand, 20 years in Afghanistan has been humbling. The United States may be the most powerful nation in the world, but it cannot force its will wherever it desires. But on the other hand, many Afghanistanis now have had a glimpse of freedom and its benefits. They have seen that American-style freedom uplifts and empowers, as opposed to radical agendas that want to degrade and destroy. Against that backdrop, radicalism may have a harder time gaining a foothold.
The “war on terrorism” always was a bit of a misnomer. Terrorism is a method for obtaining power. It is not a specific enemy, and it could be used by any group opposing the United States. As a tactic, it may never be eradicated. The best Americans leaders can do is minimize its risks.
Twenty years of military intervention and the willingness to put American lives at risk ought to give the nation’s enemies an idea of America’s intention to not let Afghanistan erupt into a threat once again.