I was born and raised in Utah, and my wife and I are raising our children here. I understand Utahns’ concerns about higher education, including high costs, uncertain career payoff, elitist attitudes and campus environments that can feel out of step with community values. Many times, these criticisms are well-founded, and universities need to do more to address them.
All the while, universities across the country are about to experience what experts call the “demographic cliff.” Because the U.S. birth rate has dropped every year since 2015, the number of 18-year-olds in the United States is expected to decline 17% by 2041. Some universities are already starting to feel the strain, and others are preparing for it.
One troubling aspect of the demographic cliff is that it widens the gap between the supply of and demand for college-educated workers. The United States Chamber of Commerce says we are already facing “a worker shortage crisis,” with too many empty jobs and not enough qualified workers, which will only grow worse with time. A Georgetown University report projects that by 2031, 72% of all jobs will require some form of postsecondary education. Fewer students, combined with the retirement of baby boomers, mean fewer graduates and fewer qualified workers.
The return on investment for higher education is one reason the demographic cliff and worker shortage matter. In Utah, for every $1 spent on public higher education, tax revenues increase by $3 due to higher wages for college graduates. Public colleges and universities contribute $12.1 billion to Utah’s economy. Of course, higher education not only pays dividends for Utah’s economy, but also for individuals. In 2024, “the median college graduate with just a bachelor’s degree earned about $80,000, compared to $47,000 for the median worker with only a high school diploma.”
The demographic cliff represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Utah can strengthen its pipeline of qualified workers by making higher education more accessible to nontraditional students such as single parents; working adults; those not entering college directly from high school; or those whose education was interrupted by family responsibilities, employment, military service or other life circumstances — all of whom represent an untapped resource.
A 2021 analysis by the Utah System of Higher Education (USHE) estimated that 486,888 people in Utah ages 25 and over had college credits but no degree. American Community Survey data for the same year show that 664,661 adults in Utah ages 25 and over do not have a college degree. This group represents an important pool of potential students.
Expanding higher education access for nontraditional students supports Utah’s legislative priorities. In 2025, lawmakers passed the Higher Education Strategic Reinvestment bill (HB265), which requires institutions to reallocate funding to programs that align student and market demand, withholding 10% of budgets until schools are compliant. This bill signals a clear message that state resources are to be invested in university programs “with strong student demand, job placement, and alignment with workforce needs.” Expanding access for non‑traditional students fits squarely with the intent of HB265.
To meet long-term labor force needs, the Legislature and Utah System of Higher Education should continue looking for ways to expand cost-efficient programs that adapt to the practical realities of nontraditional students:
- Offer evening, weekend, hybrid and online programs so working adults, parents and rural students can enroll without leaving jobs or families. These formats are more cost-effective than in-person classes, and savings can be passed on to students.
- In rural and geographically isolated communities, use libraries and public schools as low-cost sites for evening courses, tutoring and academic advising tailored to local workforce needs.
- Extend current employer childcare tax credits (HB389 [2025]) further. Add additional tax credit (e.g., 5 or 10%) covering childcare for employees pursuing higher education.
- Establish a publicly available dashboard that reports education funding and outcomes such as enrollment, graduation, credential completion and employment. Explicitly showing the impacts of investment (and disinvestment) will improve outcomes, build taxpayer trust, and promote legislative and institutional accountability.
As the country braces for declining enrollments, Utah has a chance to respond in affordable and strategic ways. By expanding pathways for motivated and resilient nontraditional students, Utah can strengthen its economy, increase taxpayer returns and soften the blow of the demographic cliff.