We explore the potential fissures in the Republican party, examining their implications both nationally and in Utah.
The Utah Legislature is dealing with some harsh blows from the courts, the most recent being a district court judge’s ruling requiring them to redraw congressional districts. At the National Press Club, Gov. Spencer Cox issued a warning to the Legislature: “I will say we risk, as the Republican Party in Utah, not listening to people … they did run an initiative, and they felt like they’re being ignored.” Does this imply cracks within local Republican ranks?
Cowley: Voters (by a very slim margin, I might add) supported a redistricting committee to recommend maps to the Legislature. They did not vote for a Salt Lake congressional district gerrymandered for Democrats. If voters thought the outcome of this altruistic-sounding commission would be to reinstate Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House, they would have soundly rejected the ballot proposition.
Now the Legislature is being forced back to the drawing board, without public input and frankly, without a lot of direction from the judge other than “try again.” This judicially mandated, hastened process doesn’t comply with the language passed in Prop 4 either, so I have to wonder, what’s the goal here?
It’s unlikely the Legislature will draw maps that create a Democratic district, so initiative organizers will inevitably be upset. It isn’t clear what the judge expects the new maps to look like, so there’s a good chance she rejects them. Worst of all, the public is completely cut out of this rushed and haphazard process, so if the governor is suggesting that voters haven’t felt heard before, this will only exacerbate the situation. I fear we are headed for a no-win situation.
Pignanelli: “Persuasion is a vital part of politics.” — James Druckman
Electoral dominance of state and local governments by a political party is a common feature throughout our country’s history. However, democratic ideals compel leaders benefiting from such status to assume a responsibility to the voters who empowered them.
The three initiatives on the 2018 ballot contained serious flaws. The Medicaid expansion proposal mandated budget-busting automatic pay increases for providers. The marijuana proposition allowed recreational use. The Better Boundaries measure established a commission with ridiculous membership prohibitions that excluded many of the best and brightest Utahns. (Even my mother was banned because she committed the sin of being a former elected official.) Yet, the Republican establishment (which is much more than legislators) offered nominal resistance to these efforts.
Concerted efforts to engage with voters may have altered the outcome. But Republican leaders defaulted on the assumption that legislators could handle any problems. Instead of the eternal fight over delegates versus signature gathering, the GOP should have been more interactive with Utahns on the ballot questions, especially regarding redistricting.
Voters deserved a robust discussion in the public arena, not to watch from the sidelines as the courts opine. This is a valuable lesson to those who enjoy overwhelming electoral support.
MAGA had a tough week. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endured harsh criticism from a Senate committee (including Republicans). President Donald Trump suffered several major court losses regarding his use of National Guard troops in LA, unilateral tariffs and deportations, and received a miserable August jobs report. Does this signal fractures in the GOP and the beginning of Trump’s downfall, right before midterms?
Cowley: Public policy is a constant back-and-forth refinement between branches of government. It appears messy, but it works and works well. The executive branch is testing the limits of its power, trying to fulfill campaign promises by ambitiously and unapologetically pursuing the things Trump was elected to do. As these cases make their way through the judicial system, only the Supreme Court’s decision really matters, and even then, the legislative branch will have a chance to act by either passing bills that will restrict or empower said actions in the future.
RFK Jr. has always been a black sheep, even within his party of origin. He has made a name for himself by questioning the long-held norms of government-implemented science and public health. Policies directing vaccines, COVID response, FDA approvals and food safety standards spark strong and varied opinions. It’s not surprising that as he gets closer to upending this house of cards, individuals from both sides of the aisle will voice objections. Questioning generationally accepted standards, especially from the government, is a healthy exercise.
Pignanelli: The Trump administration is banking on the Supreme Court overturning these decisions — a huge gamble. Conversely, many traditional Republicans are quietly hoping otherwise. They understand that high inflation and unemployment caused by tariffs are the biggest threats in the upcoming elections. Thus, many GOP incumbents may create distance from Trump to survive.
Will Democrats take advantage of this shift in political winds?
Cowley: This is not the first opportunity Democrats have had since Trump’s been in office, but so far, they have been woefully subpar in mounting any type of response. I anticipate a continuation of this paralysis.
Pignanelli: The first test of the Democrats’ ability to benefit from Republican problems will be when government funding legislation is considered this month. They will have an advantage in this chaotic environment if they can unify behind a strategy.