The current federal government shutdown is the fourth in the history of this column. So your columnists will continue the tradition of offering our commentary on the impact of this confusion.
As of the writing of this edition, most federal agencies are closed and employees who are working are not receiving wages. Commentators suggest no hope of a resolution anytime soon. Republicans want to pass a “clean bill,” but Democrats want continued funding for health exchange insurance subsidies, which expire at the end of this year. Several polls indicate that Americans blame President Donald Trump and the Republicans more than Democrats by a slight margin. A third of polling respondents fault both parties. Will this shutdown impact elections next year?
Cowley: Unless the shutdown drags out for months or something novel occurs, voters will have a short memory before heading to the polls in November 2026. It will, however, continue to erode public trust in Congress.
The previous shutdown, under the first Trump administration, lasted 35 days and was the longest in history. I fear this one could last much longer. Although annoying, distasteful and unproductive, for many Americans, their lives remain mostly unchanged. For federal workers furloughed or working without paychecks, it has very real and very painful consequences.
Shutting down the government has become an overplayed political stunt used by both parties to gain concessions. Livelihoods and government services should not be pawns in political games. This tactic also loses potency every time it is used.
Pignanelli: “Many Americans don’t think either party’s position is worth having a shutdown over.” — Anthony Salvanto, CBS News
Every day, over 250 million American adults either go to work, take care of family, pursue educational advancement or otherwise confront critical obligations. Our nation is a superpower because of these incredibly hard-working individuals who do not have the luxury of avoiding responsibilities to make a political point. Their frustration with federal dysfunction is understandable, as revealed in recent polls and surveys that highlight growing distrust in government institutions.
In prior shutdowns, similar emotions did not seep into elections as concerns with the economy and public safety prevailed. But this shutdown could be different. Notwithstanding the intent of our founders, there is hardly an element of everyday life that is not touched by the federal government. So when it’s broken, the pain spreads everywhere.
Due to the current political environment, there’s a risk that this shutdown, or the one likely to follow soon, could have a significant economic impact. The party viewed as irresponsible intransigents will feel the effects, especially in the national midterm congressional election results. This could even affect swing legislative and county council races in Utah.
Although the congressional leaders are not talking to each other now, at some point, either Republicans or Democrats will have to retreat to fund the government. What will be the political pressure points for this change? What will be the internal results for that party?
Cowley: Trump isn’t known for making concessions, so I don’t believe Republicans will be the first to flinch. The National Republican Congressional Committee is pouring money into vulnerable Democrat districts, flooding airwaves with ads assigning blame to Democrats, but poll numbers suggest that isn’t working. Further plummeting approval ratings might scare members of Congress into a compromise, but at a steep cost for either side. If Democrats cave, they will reinforce Trump’s supreme power. If Congressional Republicans split with the president, it doesn’t bode well for their reelections or the future of Trump’s agenda.
The catalyst for compromise might be a catastrophe caused by the shutdown. Maybe an air disaster due to overworked and understaffed air traffic controllers. Perhaps it will be growing sympathy for countless federal workers facing the holidays without a paycheck, but that would mean the shutdown continuing for months. Either outcome is an avoidable tragedy if Congress could end political posturing and find long-term solutions to federal overspending.
Pignanelli: One of the interesting results of the CBS/YouGov poll is that 52% of Democrats either question or are unsure of the rationale of their Congressional leaders over the shutdown. As this sentiment grows, moderate Senate Democrats will be compelled to vote to fund and resume government operations. Consequently, left-wing progressives will scream and foster support toward primary candidates to depose the Democratic incumbents who chose to reopen without Republican concessions.
Any movement by Republicans to compromise on the subsidies and thereby reopen the government will be led by President Donald Trump. While there will be some grumbling, he will remain impervious to criticism, which will benefit the GOP by minimizing internal fighting.
Utah Rep. Mike Kennedy has proposed that in the event of disagreement on funding, the law would require a continuing resolution to maintain current levels to keep the government open. Is this a worthy proposal?
Cowley: This is a fantastic proposal, as is denying members of Congress their paycheck until federal funding is restored. Unfortunately, like the filibuster, this political scheme will never go away because both sides want to leave these negotiating tactics on the table for when their party can take advantage of them.
Pignanelli: Kennedy deserves credit for a proposal abundant with common sense, especially in today’s hyperpartisan environment.