Republicans are not the only political party making news. We review recent developments impacting Democrats and a once unknown third party.
Democrats just can’t seem to catch a break. A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute survey indicates more Utahns blame Democrats than Republicans for the government shutdown. To add insult to this injury, a Noble Predictive Insights poll shows Utah Democrats have a 64% unfavorable rating. Are there any indications of this trend changing, and what would spark this course correction?
Cowley: These numbers are brutal. According to a recent survey, Utahns blame Democrats for the shutdown. When the optics are that Democrats, defenders of social programs, are holding out for health care benefits for undocumented immigrants while allowing SNAP benefits for hungry American families to end, it puts them in an even worse spot.
It’s time for a massive rebranding of Utah Democrats. They need to abandon the current model, acting as a repository of special interests, and get back to what Utahns care about: families, government accountability and neighbor helping neighbor.
Pignanelli: “Voting should be understood as a cognitive process involving internal competition between economic rewards and social identities.” — Libby Jenke, Scott A. Huettel, Center for Cognitive Neuroscience, Duke University
Aside from decisions made by the state’s largest county and city governments, Democrats have not influenced other policies. Occasionally, a minority party member says something that runs counter to the views of many Utahns. But such narrow activities do not explain the toxic results of two different polls.
A substantial reason is that the national party is perceived as dominated by progressives, left-wing special interest groups and other organizations antithetical to Utah values. It is pointless to argue the merits of this accusation because the perception has become reality for many Utahns. Several Democrats holding federal and statewide offices were unable to advance further because of this impression. The exceptions were the popular Gov. Scott Matheson and Rep. Jim Matheson, who were deemed separate from problematic external forces.
History documents that a disciplined message with practical economic solutions, sensitivity to moral issues, understanding of traditional concerns and a distance from outside interests can be successful.
Sen. Thatcher’s resignation from the state Senate has created a catalyst for “firsts” in Utah elections. The Utah Forward Party will hold a special election to select his replacement, but in unprecedented fashion, is allowing voters from other parties to participate. How will this impact the upcoming legislative session, and will Utah see more third-party candidates?
Cowley: The Utah Forward Party’s process is highly unconventional. They will conduct a ranked-choice preference poll exclusively online, open to all voters in Senate District 11. Typically, only same-party delegates choose replacements. UFP represents about 0.1% of all registered voters in Utah (3,001 total). With only a handful of party members in the district, their willingness to include all voters is commendable.
Adding to their unusual approach, the Utah Forward Party is not allowing candidates to use any paid communications or advertisements. Candidates are also subject to a background check, including a review of their social media. A novel approach indeed.
Having a Utah Forward senator in the upcoming session may be unique, but it’s still unlikely the party will emerge as a significant player in Utah politics. For reference, the largest swath of voters in Utah are Republicans. This isn’t surprising, but what might be is that the second largest group isn’t Democrats but unaffiliated voters. Unaffiliated is about half as large as Republicans, with Democrats coming in third, roughly half as big as the unaffiliated population. In a distant fourth place are the Independent Americans. When people complain about a Republican-dominated Legislature, I would remind them it is simply a reflection of Utah voters’ self-identification.
Pignanelli: Thatcher is the fourth lawmaker in Utah’s recent political history to switch parties mid-term. This includes a legislator in 1989 who apparently was upset with my leadership style (yes, there’s an interesting story behind this). Eric Hutchings announced his change before the 2002 filing deadline, allowing a debate over his choice. Voters were grateful for Hutchings’s appropriate approach and returned him to office until 2020. In 2016, a state senator flipped affiliation to Libertarian for the last six months of his term.
The true test of this third party’s viability will be in 2026, as both major parties will fight to recapture the seat.
A Deseret News/Hinckley Institute survey also revealed Utahns’ approval for President Trump dropped from 54% to 51% with 46% disapproving. (Nationally, Trump has over 90% approval from Republicans.) Could this local grumbling benefit Democrats and other parties?
Cowley: I love old, historic things — antiques, first edition books, black and white movies, even Frank! I am not sold on the justification for altering the most significant historic building in our nation. Surely there isn’t a lack of ballrooms in D.C., but I am grateful it is not being built with taxpayer money. This unique model might be a blueprint for future public projects to be funded by private donors.
Pignanelli: The survey indicates problems with Trump amongst independents and moderate Republicans. Although the polls show Democrats have yet to attract these Utahns, they are available for persuasive messaging.