A majority of Americans finally believe crime is becoming less of a problem, which means perception is beginning to align with reality.
That reality also raises questions about the president’s perceived need to send federal troops into various American cities in order to curb crime.
A new poll
A recently released Gallup poll found that 49% of Americans now believe crime is “extremely” or “very” serious in the nation, while another 49% believe it has increased in the past year.
Last year, Gallup found 56% saying the problem is serious and 64% saying it had increased. The 2025 poll results represent the lowest percentages to those questions since at least 2018, the Gallup website said.
Crime analyst Jeff Asher says things are even better than people perceive, especially when it comes to murder. The rate for that crime began falling in 2023, after a steep rise during the pandemic.
“The drops in 2025 may end up being historic in size,” Asher said on his Substack account. “So it’s encouraging to see that perceptions of crime are starting to match reality.”
Gallup found only 30% of Americans believe crime is up over last year in their localities, which Asher said is the lowest since 2001.
Common beliefs about crime
For many years, Americans have been weaned on the notion that crime is rising and the streets are becoming increasingly more dangerous. For many years, this belief reflected reality. That made crime a ready issue for any political candidate looking to attack an incumbent.
A falling crime rate, however, has been a more difficult sell. Perceptions are often fed by stories of crime people hear about near them, or by either personal experiences as a victim or the experiences of close friends or relatives.
While down considerably, crime in the United States is by no means eradicated. It still exists and its consequences still range from the frightening to the tragic. In addition, reports of random mass shootings and attacks on politicians are legitimate sources of fear.
On a macro level, however, overall trends are moving in the right direction. That’s not just the opinion of interest groups and experts. It’s borne out by statistics.
In August, the FBI released its national report on crimes in 2024. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter fell by 14.9% over the previous year. Rapes were down an estimated 5.2%. Aggravated assault fell 3%. Robbery dropped 8.9%.
Reasons crime is dropping
There may be many reasons for the actual drop in crime, ranging from an aging population to the proliferation of inexpensive surveillance videos and doorbell cams. The perception problem, however, has its roots in politics.
Asher said his data shows that “Fewer people from the party holding the presidency have said that crime has risen in the last year compared to the out-of-power party in every year since 2000 with the exception of 2001, 2020 and 2025.”
“So it’s no shock that there was a large drop in Republicans and a smaller but still sizable increase in Democrats saying crime had risen in the last year,” he said. “But 2025 is still an outlier with Republicans in power and a higher share of Republicans say(ing) crime rose in the last year.”
That perception among Republicans may be why President Trump has made a show of sending federal troops into various large U.S. cities in recent months.
Trump has said this is necessary to stem runaway and rampant crime. Statistics tell a different story. The Associated Press measured crime rates in the cities Trump has targeted. Some types of crime are up in some of them, but most are down.
It is true that violence persists in some neighborhoods, as it has for many years. However, John Roman, a data expert who directs the Center on Public Safety & Justice at the University of Chicago, told the AP that no American city is currently witnessing a crisis. “We’re at a remarkable moment in crime in the United States,” he said.
Don’t get complacent
Remove politics from this issue and the important thing is to try to understand why these trends are taking place and how local and state governments, who have the primary responsibility for law enforcement, can ensure the trends continue.
Also, it’s important not to become complacent about crime. It still exists, and in numbers that remain unacceptable.
But answers come best when people understand the facts, and it’s good to know a slim majority of people now perceive that crime in the United States is not as bad as many would like them to believe.