The unheard of is now possible. There is a good chance that Utah could be represented by a socialist in Congress in the near future. We explore and explain why.
Two weeks ago, Third District Court Judge Dianna Gibson enjoined the Legislature from implementing “Map C,” approved in a special session, and instead approved “Plaintiff Map 1.” Why are Utah Democrats (well, most of them) jumping for joy?
Cowley: Some analysis of the new CD1 (greater Salt Lake area) shows it as D+24, which in political nerd-speak means it’s drawn very, very, very liberal. The only real election for this seat will be the Democratic primary, where candidates will compete to see who can “out-leftist” one another. Current speculated candidates include former congressman Ben McAdams, former Sen. Derek Kitchen, Salt Lake City Councilwoman Eva Lopez, Sen. Kathleen Riebe and Sen. Nathan Blouin.
They will all tout their liberal accolades, but will it be enough? If newly elected “Commie Mamdani” is the party standard-bearer, even the most progressive among these candidates may seem like a Republican. Others are still considering tossing their hats into the ring.
Some Republicans are looking for a silver lining, suggesting that through this Democrat-safe seat, Utahn voters will see up close and personal the dangers of the socialist agenda and will swing back even farther right. I’m not sure I see it the same way. I fear this will signal to national groups that Utah’s red wall is fracturing and incentivize these out-of-state organizations to pour more money into local and legislative races.
Pignanelli: “Anyone who seeks predictability would do well to avoid politics altogether and become a bank manager.“ — Tom Switzer
Ultra-left-wing Democrats were delivered an unexpected holiday gift. For many decades, congressional districts tilted right, compelling the nomination of moderate Democrats to secure the support of independent and centrist Republicans. But in CD1, this strategy is moot. The winner will be a progressive who attracts serious dollars from leftist national organizations.
Until Gibson’s ruling, the conventional wisdom was that former Rep. Ben McAdams would be a shoo-in nominee in a district outlined in Map C. But the deep blue tint of CD1 is attracting numerous left-wing candidates who now have a chance in the elections. Thus, moderate McAdams is facing stiff competition but will remain a strong contender, especially if the progressive vote is spread among many others.
In a scenario not seen since the Great Depression, the Utah 2026 Democratic convention will be filled with liberal candidates vying to outdo each other.
A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute poll revealed 70% of Utah Democrats have a favorable view of socialism compared to 61% nationally. Could Utah voters in District 1 elect a socialist?
Cowley: In short, yes. With this deep blue of a district for Dems, we could see extremism within that party flourish. Socialism and American ideals cannot live in harmony with one another. These evils are worming their way into mainstream conversations through concerns about the affordability of everyday goods, especially for young voters. When groceries feel like a budget-busting expense, people grow desperate and look for something to blame. In Utah, some are blaming the pro-business economic policies and want to see more consumer and worker protections. This can make stronger regulations on businesses, universal guaranteed income and even distribution of wealth more appealing. Hopefully, a review of recent history in Cuba can dissuade young voters from pursuing the path of socialism.
Pignanelli: Between 1900 and 1920, over 100 Utah socialists were elected to various positions. So precedent exists, albeit an ancient one.
Other polls indicate that my generation’s view of socialism is very different from that of much younger voters, who believe it to be a “being nice and social to each other” system. Also, their education lacked a deep understanding of the problems rooted in a socialist government. The greater concern is that up-and-coming generations misunderstand the value of capitalism and free markets. Most Utahns support needed public welfare programs. But expansive socialism at best causes stagnation (European countries) or often outright terror (Cuba). Yet, Democratic socialists are now dominating national and local politics and will make a strong showing in CD1.
Midterms often signal the lame duck era of a second-term president. What does that mean for Trump and Republicans, and what can Democrats do to capitalize on this momentum?
Cowley: We haven’t seen Democrats gain traction in recent years by acting as the repository of every siloed progressive issue. If they want to win elections again, they need to get back to what works: fighting for blue-collar workers.
Republicans will need to demonstrate what they have done to improve Americans’ lives over the last two years. Crossings of illegal immigrants may be at a record low, but voters will be asking, “What have you done for me personally?” Between tariffs and inflation, everyday items are less affordable, making the case for Republican reelection harder.
Pignanelli: Republicans lost almost 50 seats in 2018 during Trump’s first term and regained control in 2022 during the Biden presidency. This dynamic was evident in most midterms of modern presidents since Bill Clinton. Republicans will need a good economy and a strong message to defy history.