America may be about to enter a war most of its people know and care little about.
Even Republicans in Congress are beginning to demand answers as to what the administration intends to do in Venezuela. They are right to do so.
Americans need to know those intentions and the president’s rationale for them. Is the United States preparing to go to war to topple a regime that, by many accounts, lost the last election but refused to concede power? If so, what is the threat Venezuela poses to the United States? Will American troops be placed in harm’s way?
An invasion-sized fleet
The Trump administration has sent an invasion-sized naval fleet toward Venezuela. The president has already ordered deadly airstrikes on several boats leaving that country, arguing that these were running illegal drugs. Protecting Americans from the scourge of illegal drugs is a worthy pursuit. But at what cost?
The president has made veiled mention of wanting to topple Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. Numerous reports said he gave Maduro an ultimatum during a recent phone call, but the president’s final intentions have not been made public.
This is not a plea for tactical information. It is a plea for transparency in what the current administration is trying to accomplish in its movements against Venezuela.
A ruthless autocrat
By many accounts, Maduro is a ruthless autocrat who has committed numerous human rights violations. He threatens and punishes opposition candidates. A large prison known as the Helicoide is believed to be a center for torture and inhumane treatment. These abuses have likely exacerbated an exodus from Venezuela that has led to a flurry of asylum seekers at the southern U.S. border, an issue that has also riled the president.
Americas Quarterly reports that 7.9 million people have left Venezuela since Maduro came to power in 2013, or about 25% of the population. This, the publication said, is “the largest exodus ever in Latin America and the largest in the world outside of wars.”
Are these abuses reason enough for the U.S. to begin a military assault, if that is what is coming? If so, how would that reconcile with the president’s long-standing opposition to what he considered needless wars? What would be the intent?
In the United States, Congress has the power to declare war. Presidents have only emergency powers to conduct military actions under the War Powers Act. They must consult Congress within 48 hours and receive consent from Congress within 90 days of such action.
Trump would not be the first president to stretch those requirements, but if an invasion is launched, the American people need to know the end goal and why their sons and daughters are being put in harm’s way.
Polls show general apathy
Polls show people aren’t spoiling for a fight with Venezuela. A CBS poll taken in mid-November found 70% opposing military action and 82% saying the president needs to explain the need for any military action.
A YouGov poll found 60% of Americans have no opinion whatsoever about Maduro.
Some experts warn that the U.S. has already gone too far and that a U.S. retreat now would send a dangerous message to the nation’s enemies.
“Maduro would emerge as the survivor who bested Trump and showed that American influence in the Western Hemisphere is limited at best,” former Reagan and first-term Trump official Elliott Abrams wrote for Foreign Affairs.
Successful regime change, he said, would end Venezuela’s relations with China, Cuba, Iran and Russia. It would, he said, be worth the risks, even though those are great.
What could go wrong?
Regime change campaigns easily can go awry. Writing for the Cato Institute a few years ago about a mounting scholarly consensus against regime-change operations, non-resident fellow Ben Denison said such campaigns are instead “likely to spark civil wars, lead to lower levels of democracy, increase repression, and in the end, draw the foreign intervener into lengthy nation-building projects.”
That sounds a lot like the Afghanistan and Iraq conflicts Trump had argued against.
Americans need to shake off their apathy toward Venezuela and begin demanding to know the rationale behind whatever it is the administration intends to do.