A recent Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics poll shows that 51% of Americans (and 52% of Utahns) think President Trump is exercising too much power. What does this mean for the remainder of his term in office and for the power of the executive for the next White House inhabitant? Will this affect Utah politics?
Cowley: Government is good at slowly accruing more power and terrible at returning it. Trump has done more to test and redefine the power of the president than perhaps any of his predecessors. It feels like there are weekly court rulings on his latest efforts to muscle through his agenda by way of executive fiat — mass deportations, tariffs, National Guard activations and the list goes on. Trump’s successor may criticize his scope creep but will do little to reverse it.
Republicans are small-government folks. The expansion of any governmental authority should be met with skepticism, no matter how popular or noble the cause may be. These actions, more than any others, will color Trump’s legacy one way or another once he leaves office.
Utahns already aren’t all that hip on Trump. Couple that with a deep-seated cultural distrust for the federal government, and it equals trouble for the Commander in Chief’s support in the Beehive State. Utah candidates should carefully consider their voters before soliciting or accepting Trump’s endorsement in the midterm election.
Pignanelli: “The GOP has less than four years to turn Trump voters into reliable Republican voters.” — Adam Wren, Politico
A suggested new rule of politics (and human psychology) is that underestimating or predicting President Trump is futile and only causes anguish. Trump remains the predominant force in politics, commerce and foreign relations. But there is natural fraying at the edges as GOP members of Congress increasingly question various decisions.
Utahns’ response to the poll is not surprising since the federal government openly persecuted our state’s founders for over 50 years. Regardless of who’s holding the reins, there is a distrust of excessive authority.
The pivotal moment for the Trump administration and its followers will be the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs. If Trump prevails, despite the Constitution’s wording, his support will be shored up. But a ruling striking the tariffs will foster greater criticism and open opposition in some circumstances. This will also flavor counteractions if Trump attempts to circumvent the Court. The decision will impact local elections as special interest organizations will be emboldened to weigh in on favored candidates.
A new Politico poll illustrates the growing fractures in Trump’s support. Over a third of his voters don’t identify as MAGA. Is Trump becoming a lame duck? Will these non-MAGA Trump voters remain loyal to Trump and the GOP in the 2026 and 2028 elections?
Cowley: Nobody will agree on 100% of the issues 100% of the time, so some dissent among the ranks is expected. While the gap widens on Trump’s approval versus disapproval rating, he is still more popular than any leading Democrat.
Overexerting executive authority and the economy are Trump’s biggest vulnerabilities. Blue-collar workers who voted for him are disappointed at the unfulfilled promise to end Biden’s inflation and make everyday goods more affordable (remember the chart on egg prices?). The sluggish course correction on inflation, coupled with tariff troubles, are feeding this disappointment. I will give an honorable mention to Thanksgiving feasts being 5% lower than last year, but it may be too little, too late for many of the president’s supporters.
The most important question is who will emerge to keep MAGA united for the next presidential election. Will it be Vice President Vance? Marjorie Taylor Greene? Marco Rubio, or someone else? Vance and Rubio especially will have to start making political decisions about whether they will unconditionally support their boss’s actions if and when they run for his job or if they will carve out a few strategic differences. Only time will tell.
Pignanelli: This critical survey demonstrates that those who voted for Trump in 2024 are not a monolithic block. There is an increasing distance between his MAGA and non-MAGA voters, especially on economic issues. The non-MAGA are not all Republicans. Many are worried about their future and want Trump to be more focused. Conversely, MAGA Americans remain committed to their guy.
Neither party can win without substantial help from non-MAGA citizens. Thus, the smart strategy is to pivot messaging to address their concerns. Trump has the power of incumbency and a loyal base, so he is better positioned to reformat. But Democrats will try the same approach. Whoever is hungriest will prevail.
Will any of these shifts have impacts on Utah’s 2026 midterm elections?
Cowley: Republican-held swing legislative seats are already vulnerable next year. There is an anticipated influx of money from liberal organizations supporting candidates in the newly Democratic-leaning congressional seat, as well as involvement in ballot measures. Savvy challengers will liken Republican incumbents to Trump — perceived gerrymandering on redistricting, punitive measures aimed at punishing the judiciary and a general criticism of overreach.
Pignanelli: Under Judge Gibson’s map, the effect on congressional elections will occur in the primaries. If Trump has not addressed the concerns among non-MAGA voters, there could be shifts in the Legislature and county councils.